The League is back! Season guide with predictions for the title, Europe and relegation
The League is back with a bang – as if it almost never left – let's take a look at how things are shaping up for the key battles of the season.
Title race
Well, champions are favored to be champions again. When you add Kylian Mbappe to a side that won three trophies last year, it's pretty hard to look past. Endrick Felipe has also arrived but has his work cut out just to get on the field.
The loss of Joselu Mato could have a bigger impact than some think, and there are two questions for Ancelotti to answer. The Mbappe fit is probably overblown, but the absence of Toni Kroos is not. I know break it can be replicated at times by Luka Modric, but it will be a miss. There's also the defense, which just can't escape injuries, and now it's Nacho Fernandez-less.
There are more questions about Barcelona. Dani Olmo has arrived and will presumably be registered. Not many big names are left out. He leaves Barcelona with questions about a new manager in a new culture that does not yet speak the language in public. There are still question marks over his midfield setup, and Robert Lewandowski doesn't look as young as he says he feels.
On the other hand, Lamine Yamal has quickly become one of the best players in the world, and there is still a bundle of quality in that team, despite the gaps. If Flick can coach around the gaps, they weren't a thousand times last season. And it's worth noting that Barcelona haven't played well for most of the season, so just regressing to the mean would make a big difference.
And then there is Atletico Madrid. We see you doing a brand signing, we see you spending big. Robin Le Normand and Alexander Sorloth are solid additions, but probably won't move the needle in a title race, while Julian Alvarez, if he plays close to his ceiling, may. They also need to see how their window plays out as well. That said, they were way off the pace for the past two seasons, so they're focusing on breaking out of the pack first.
Logic and reason suggest that it is Real MadridHe is to lose, despite the reasons for optimism for the challengers. We don't like football because it's predictable though.
Forecast: Real Madrid to win. (John Menzies, Fergal Brennan, Roderick Barlow)
European race
All three of our experts have title contenders placing in the top three, so we're in the running for the rest of the European spots. There is still a lot to shake up in the transfer market.
Girona have lost the backbone of their squad, and it looks like it could be a tough ask for another European final as they also add ten Champions League games to their schedule. Athletic Club are in a high position as they look to keep Nico Williams, and have added Andoni Gorosabel and Alvaro Djalo. Ernesto Valverde's side are also competing in Europe for the first time in seven years too, so that has an impact on their intense and physical approach, as well as their top line.
Real Sociedad's Basque rivals are well used to the rigmarole of European sides at this point, and have even retained a valuable asset in Martin Zubimendi, but apart from that, it has been a tricky window. Imanol Alguacil still doesn't have a striker – he doesn't think Umar Sadiq is the one for him – and they will probably lose Mikel Merino.
Real Betis had a famous summer, where they make a few solid additions, see Natan, Marc Roca, Diego Llorente, Ricardo Rodriguez, but then also lose a number of key pieces; Chadi Riad, Ayoze Perez, Willian Jose and Guido Rodriguez. Manuel Pellegrini's trapeze act is nothing if not consistent, and there will be some here or there.
Valencia, RCD Mallorca, Sevilla and Osasuna are the outside shouts depending on how their seasons are going, which is a show of how disastrous the last two years have been for Los Nervionenses. The gate-crashers are Villarreal. Marcelino Garcia Toral finally looked like he was fixing things towards the end of last season, and they have talent. Whisper, Alex Baena could stay too.
Their scorer Sorloth did not, and they have not yet replaced him properly. Pape Gueye, Nicolas Pepe and Willy Kambwala are interesting additions, and they need a goalkeeper as well. Doubt Marcelino at your peril though.
Top Four:
Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Villarreal – JM
Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atlético Madrid, Real Sociedad – FB
Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Villarreal – RB
European locations (5, 6, 7):
Athletic Club, Real Sociedad, Real Betis – JM
Athletic Club, Villarreal, Girona – FB
Real Sociedad, Athletic Club, Real Betis – RB
Relegation battle
Here's where it gets tough. Leganes came in as champions last season, but they didn't particularly score. This will be their problem, as Borja Jimenez has built a solid defense in a highly competitive Segunda, and will rely on Miguel de la Fuente and Diego Garcia for goals.
Second was Real Valladolid, which was nothing if not curious. Manager Paulo Pezzolano has a love-hate relationship with the fans, while president Ronaldo Nazario has turned towards the latter of late. They bring a lot of experience to the Liga, but they also lack goals, without Juanmi Latasa, Marcos Andre and Moussa Sylla who own a record.
Detect a theme? Espanyol lost top scorer Martin Braithwaite, and they have to replace him. A lot of their squad remains from their relegation two years ago, which shouldn't really go down. The inexperienced Manolo Martinez took over at the end of last season and guided Los Pericos through the play-offs, and he has the chance of a lifetime after spending most of his career in the lower leagues in Catalonia.
Rayo Vallecano became the goal avoiders last season despite their talented frontline, but Inigo Perez will be hoping they can arrest their downward trajectory since the departure of Andoni Iraola. He is largely managing the same team. Getafe has the quality to stay, and a manager to do so in Jose Bordalas, but he started the campaign with only 17 players in his team, and the concern is in the coliseum.
Another former B team coach in Claudio Giraldez is at Celta Vigo, who sold Jorgen Strand Larsen but brought home Borja Iglesias as a replacement. Celta will likely be among them, but Giraldez's side weren't solely dependent on Iago Aspas down the stretch. Alaves sold Luis Garcia Plaza on continuity, and while Samu Omorodion left, they made a series of useful additions, including Asier Villalibre from Athletic. It will be if they can replicate the same intensity in Mendizorroza.
Osasuna should be fine, but they said goodbye to David Garcia and manager Jagoba Arrasate, who is now at RCD Mallorca. They have Bryan Zaragoza on loan from Bayern Munich, however, which Vicente Moreno can provide for Ante Budimir. Mallorca d'Arrasate have not been occupied yet, but they had the raw material to stay last season despite their distraction in the Copa del Rey.
Finally, Las Palmas is the ninth part that could design the head upside down. Luis Carrion replaced Garcia Pimienta (who went to Sevilla) and has a tough job on his hands. Their form fell off a Canary cliff last season, and they lost Sergi Cardona and Saul Coco. Their recruitment has been intriguing to say the least, with Scott Mckenna, Oli McBurnie, Jaime Mata, Adnan Januzaj and Jasper Cillessen all landed.
Relegation:
Leganes, Rayo Vallecano, Real Valladolid – JM
Leganes, Real Valladolid, Espanyol – FB
Leganes, Las Palmas, Real Valladolid – RB
Surprise of the Season:
- RCD Mallorca to finish in the top eight – JM
- Valencia: Still liable to implosion but Ruben Baraja can lead to European battle – FB
- Mallorca and Villarreal finished above their projections, but support Celta Vigo not to be in the relegation battle in the last two days for once – RB.
Pichichi
Kylian Mbappé – JM
Robert Lewandowski – FB
Kylian Mbappé – RB
Breakout Star
Small / Marc Bernal – JM
Arda Guler/Benat Turrientes – FB
Benat Turrientes/Cristian Mosquera – RB
The player of the season
Vinicius Junior – JM
Vinicius Junior – FB
Kylian Mbappé – RB
