Big Stat replaces Big Sam: how Premier League clubs recruit elite coaches | first division

YoIt feels like the days of sacking a manager for a series of defeats and then scrolling through Filofax to find numbers from Big Sam, Big Mick, Massive Moyesy or Huge Harry are coming to an end. There will always be a time and place for managerial heritage, but clubs are increasingly looking to statistics to help find the best fit for their strategy, players and even brand.

In it first division There are no job advertisements and no applications will be accepted. Instead, the search will begin long before the paperwork for the latest P45 begins.

Succession planning is key – knowing the top three options to replace the person in the hot seat, whether moving on to bigger and better things or tending to your petunias. Brighton are usually the benchmark, quickly replacing Graham Potter with Roberto De Zerbi and Hiring of Fabián Hürzeler when the italian left in summer, allowing for seamless transitions. Everyone seeks to replicate the process.

“When you look at things like Brentford and Brighton, the reason, in part, they use data so effectively is not just because they pioneered the space and have smart people there, but because the whole club is aligned to work to that principle,” says Alex. Stewart of the sports consultancy Analytics FC. “You have to make sure that all the stakeholders, which are usually the general manager, the sporting director and the owner, want the same thing.”

Analytics FC is one of several companies that provide advice to clubs and associations in making appointments. Getting the wrong manager is an expensive business: if things don't work out, the compensation for firing them can run into the millions. Previously, all that was needed for a manager was a long resume, so the same people appeared in many different jobs. Football spent a long time treating itself solely as a sport, but it is a multi-billion dollar industry and needs to be managed as such. In the business world, most CEOs and CFOs are hired by experts and football is catching up.

Well-run clubs have a philosophy that comes from the top, dictated by a director of football or equivalent. There is a blueprint for what a club wants to be, helping them understand the process required in the long term and putting an end to the rotation of coaches with different playing styles that may be unsuitable for a team that is not recruited for their needs.

Sports directors or consultants will create a matrix of requirements while searching for potential candidates to fill a vacancy and will search from Albania to Zambia for coaches who can meet the requirements. Studying data on xG (expected goals) and xG against, for example, can be a good indicator of whether a coach is getting more out of a team than his predecessor. Another key indicator is whether a coach can influence a match by changing tactics or making a substitution, but the variety of statistics that can dictate a recruitment process is almost endless.

“We worked with a club who knew they had a relatively low transfer budget, so they were interested in having a coach who had access to other regions in terms of scouting knowledge because that would perhaps allow them to get players from that region. . less expensive, or the manager could bring them good contacts,” Stewart says. “Those types of things are part of the evaluation and we will include them if necessary.”

At the top, metrics are used to compare team value to points earned. Clubs that pay the most for transfers and salaries should be first in the league and find coaches who are top performers based on relevant data.

These concepts are not foolproof but they are a good indicator of what a coach has accomplished. It may surprise some that, despite Pep Guardiola managing a Manchester City team worth around £1.2 billion, he still outperforms his achievements based on points accumulated each season.

A manager cannot live on statistics alone. People management is another important concept and for this the sports director moves away from numbers and calls by phone to look for former players and coaches who have worked with someone in question. It still takes a lot of legwork behind the scenes to determine who lands perfectly in the middle of the Venn diagram.

The modern coach not only produces a team to play twice a week but also has media commitments. Press handling is another key aspect a sporting director will review, closely examining how a coach handles questions from reporters, whether they seem nervous or overthinking when the microphone is in front of them, and the extent to which words, phrases and clichés they repeat.

These are qualities that can't be seen in a spreadsheet. Statistics act as a guide and those responsible can use the numbers, but they cannot hide behind them if something goes wrong. This is not a video game, it is real life and decisions have consequences, but at least more and more clubs are giving themselves the best chance of getting it right.