How Real Madrid might play without Vinicius Jr – against Liverpool and beyond

By premiernews On Nov 27, 2024

After returning from international duty with Brazil, Vinicius Junior picked up an injury during Real Madrid’s La Liga win against Leganes on Sunday.

The 2024 Ballon d’Or runner-up played the full match but limped off with discomfort afterwards, and nothing serious was expected until medical tests indicated he had damaged his left thigh.

The aim is for Vinicius Jr to be back for the final of the Intercontinental Cup — the new name for the old version of the Club World Cup — in Qatar on December 18, although he could return before then depending on his recovery.

Between now and that match, Madrid have six other fixtures in all competitions, including two in the Champions League. The first of those is against the Premier League leaders Liverpool — who are also top of the Champions League table — at Anfield tonight.

It is a significant blow for head coach Carlo Ancelotti, with Vinicius Jr having been outstanding for Madrid this season.

Speaking before the Liverpool game, the Italian said: “What matters is that he recovers soon, and we think about the players who are going to replace him. I hear a lot of advice (about whether I should have rotated to rest key men), but I have played 1,300 games, made 1,300 line-ups and made almost 4,000 changes (in my coaching career). Nobody can give me advice in this sense.”

For this run of games, then, the big question for Madrid is: What do they do without Vinicius Jr?

The influence of Madrid’s No 7 is clear to see. They channel a large percentage of attacks down the Brazilian’s left side, and he has long been their most dangerous attacking player. This season, he has been involved in 20 goals (scoring 12 himself, with eight assists) in all competitions.

This has led Ancelotti to use Vinicius Jr in his favoured position on the left and shift summer signing Kylian Mbappe into a central role since he arrived as a marquee free agent from Paris Saint-Germain. In the eventual 3-0 win against Leganes at the weekend, however, the coach switched them around, and Mbappe looked far more comfortable out on the left. His goal in that game came from a Vinicius Jr pass.

Kylian Mbappe celebrates opening the scoring against Leganes with Vinicius Jr (Guillermo Martinez)

With Vinicius Jr now set to miss up to six games, the Frenchman is expected to be given an extended run on the left side of Madrid’s attack. But how will the rest of the team be impacted?

Will Ancelotti change his system?

Throughout the season, Madrid have varied their approach to games, depending on opponents and injuries, but Ancelotti has usually opted for a 4-4-2 with two holding midfielders to give his team greater security in central areas. That is the set-up he feels safest using.

Given the injuries to key players throughout the team, Ancelotti has been constantly plugging gaps. Federico Valverde would usually be one of his first-choice central midfielders, but he played at right-back against Leganes because Dani Carvajal and Lucas Vazquez, their two senior options in that position, were out.

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Against La Liga’s 14th-placed team, Madrid were free to attack on Sunday. Mbappe played off the left, with Vinicius Jr in a more central role. Arda Guler was positioned on the right of midfield, with Dani Ceballos partnering Eduardo Camavinga in the centre and Jude Bellingham towards the left.

They won’t get that kind of freedom against a Liverpool team who are eight points clear at the top of the Premier League table and will also regain first place in the Champions League one with a win tonight.

It is expected that Ancelotti will stick to his more secure 4-4-2 at Anfield, though one (perhaps unlikely) alternative would be to use Mbappe through the middle — where he has played for most of this season — in a 4-3-3 with Bellingham and Brahim Diaz playing either side of the France forward.

This season, Madrid have had to start only one game without Vinicius Jr, so it’s hard to know what Ancelotti will do. That was against Espanyol at home in La Liga and, despite the Brazilian’s absence, their focus that day remained the same. They still channeled 40 per cent of their attacks down their left — the majority, but also the fourth-lowest proportion in any of their matches in this campaign so far.

As can be seen from the pass network below, the system involved Rodrygo playing off the left with Mbappe through the middle and happy to interchange with Guler on the right.

One other option for Ancelotti in the coming weeks is to revive the split-strikers setup that was so successful with Vinicius Jr and Rodrygo last season — just without having the former available.

That was more of a 4-3-1-2 and involved the two forwards pulling out wide to create space through the middle for other players to attack. The main player who benefitted from this was Bellingham, who the coaches used in a more advanced role before the arrival of Mbappe and scored 23 goals for Madrid in all competitions in his 2023-24 debut season.

Rodrygo is due back from injury in the coming weeks and could reprise that role of a year ago alongside Mbappe, which would certainly free up Bellingham — the England international has just two club goals in 14 appearances across all competitions this season.

How might Vinicius Jr’s injury affect Mbappe?

Mbappe is calm and happy as he settles into his new life in the Spanish capital, but coaching staff and team-mates alike are aware he has not yet reached his full potential for Madrid and that his confidence in games can improve. That is why he was given the opportunity to play on the left against Leganes — and he impressed. With Vinicius Jr now unavailable for multiple games, Mbappe will no doubt hope for more time in his favoured position.

The work Madrid have been doing with Mbappe goes beyond his position in the starting line-up, however, and there has been a lot of focus on his play when they do not have the ball.

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Mbappe is left as a “free man” when the team retreat, but Ancelotti and his coaches have decided to change the position from which they want him to launch counter-attacks. Unlike last season, when the two Madrid forwards waited near halfway while the opponents attacked, now both Mbappe and Vinicius Jr will retreat further, to near the penalty area. The hope is that opposing defences will respond by moving higher up the pitch, and be left with a greater distance to cover at high speed if Madrid do counter-attack.

Against Leganes, starting from his natural position on the left, Mbappe made more progressive carries — defined as a carry that advances the ball at least 10 metres towards goal — than anyone else on the pitch (eight). A move to more of a winger’s role gave him greater freedom to dribble, and he made 29 carries in total.

Four of these carries ended in a shot at goal, which underlined the confidence he had when playing from the left and how doing so helped him have an impact on the game.

Trent Alexander-Arnold will not start for Liverpool tonight at right-back after his own injury issue, so if Mbappe continues on that side it is likely that 21-year-old Conor Bradley will be given the task of stopping him.

Who could get their chance while Vinicius Jr is out?

Luka Modric played only the final seven minutes against Leganes and, if Valverde continues at right-back against Liverpool, the 39-year-old Croatian is expected to come back into central midfield alongside Camavinga. Bellingham is fit and will start, meaning there is one place in midfield (most likely on the right) and one forward spot to be decided in Ancelotti’s preferred 4-4-2.

The clamour will increase for young striker Endrick to get more minutes, and the player sees this situation as a big opportunity for him. But sources on the coaching staff, who wished to remain anonymous to protect their jobs, believe the teenage Brazilian needs more time before he can lead the Madrid attack as a centre-forward.

With Rodrygo still injured, Brahim is best placed to take Vinicius Jr’s place in the team at Anfield and partner Mbappe up front in a 4-4-2.

“He is a player who has come back very well from injury, he has taken advantage of the break to play and score goals. He’s a very important player for us,” said Ancelotti after the recent international window.

Brahim scored five goals in Morocco’s two games over the past two weeks but was rested against Leganes and played only the final 15 minutes. As a result, he will be fresher for the match against Liverpool.

Brahim is most likely to come into the starting line-up against Liverpool (Maria Gracia Jimenez/Soccrates/Getty Images)

Brahim is highly valued at Madrid, not just for his attacking talent but also the defensive side of his game. He puts in huge amounts of effort to help his team when they do not have possession.

Again, Rodrygo will be absent against Liverpool tonight but when he returns — which might be in Sunday’s home match with Getafe — then he will be restored to the right side of midfield. The Brazilian has been used in that position practically since he arrived at Madrid in 2019, with a few exceptions, and there is a trust in his work off the ball — Ancelotti’s biggest obsession this season.

The manager appears to have a decision to make between Guler, after he played on the right against Leganes, and Ceballos for the Liverpool match.

Guler can push forward and join in with attacks from that position, and has often caused problems for opposition defences by doing so. But the 19-year-old Turkey international would perhaps offer the team less protection down that side.

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Ceballos could tuck into midfield from there. The 28-year-old is an experienced option who could strengthen central midfield when Madrid are defending, but he has been used sparingly this season.

Further down the line, Guler may compete with Brahim for that more creative role further forward, and Madrid worked on that in training from pre-season.

Brahim is more of a direct dribbler, while Guler is likely to drift onto his left foot and drop deeper to get on the ball. Guler has averaged 8.3 touches in the defensive third in La Liga since joining Madrid, while Brahim is down at 3.5. Guler is also more willing to shoot from distance — he’s averaging 3.8 shots per game, from an average distance of 19.1 yards, while Brahim takes 2.1 shots per game from an average distance of 15.9 yards. Brahim likes to dribble into the box and look for cutbacks or thread passes from the edge of the penalty area.

Here are the possible line-ups that Madrid could use in the coming weeks…

A 4-4-2 against Liverpool tonight, with Ferland Mendy returning at left-back (as is likely for their bigger games), Valverde continuing at right-back and Modric partnering Camavinga in central midfield. Raul Asencio is set to start again at centre-back, with Tchouameni still out injured, and the right midfield and forward options have been discussed earlier in the piece.

When Madrid return to league action at the weekend, they will hope to welcome back Rodrygo, Tchouameni and Vazquez. Having these players available again will be a big boost for Ancelotti. In a 4-4-2, Tchouameni is likely to replace Asencio in central defence and Valverde will move up into midfield, with Vazquez playing right-back. Rodrygo should partner Mbappe up front and then the right-midfield spot will be between Modric and Brahim.