Kylian Mbappe’s dream move to Real Madrid has not gone entirely to plan.
The 25-year-old France forward has scored 11 goals and provided two assists since joining Madrid in the summer. Only Vinicius Junior has more goal contributions (the Brazilian has scored 12 goals and provided eight assists).
But Mbappe has experienced problems on and off the pitch. He was caught offside eight times in a 4-0 Clasico defeat against Barcelona in October and missed two key penalties in Madrid’s last two defeats against Liverpool in the Champions League and Athletic Club in La Liga.
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He continues to be involved in a legal battle with his old club, Paris Saint-Germain, over €55million in salary he claims is owed to him, while in October, reports linked him to an alleged rape in Sweden. Mbappe described these claims as “fake news”, while his lawyer has said he believes the player has “nothing to be reproached for“.
Mbappe has had to adapt to a centre-forward position at Madrid given Vinicius Jr is the team’s leader on the left — and we have only seen glimpses of the striker who finished as PSG’s record goalscorer and provided 44 goals and 10 assists last term.
“It could be that he lacks a bit of confidence,” coach Carlo Ancelotti said after the 2-0 defeat to Liverpool. “There is a medicine, which is to be patient. It’s a difficult moment for him, especially today after the missed penalty.”
“I am going to succeed here,” Mbappe said in a recent interview with French TV station Canal Plus. “At the beginning, I was too hungry and it played a trick on me because I was impatient. But I have passion and this competitive side. Sometimes, it played against me.”
So, how could Mbappe regain his confidence? The Athletic has spoken to two sports psychologists and two La Liga defenders who have faced him in recent matches to see what he is doing right, what he could improve and how he can rediscover his best form.
The data shows that Mbappe is not doing a huge amount different to previous seasons. Not a lot has changed in terms of the number of shots, average expected goals (xG) per shot and the distance from goal he is taking them from, as shown by the below shot evolution graphic.
But Mbappe is not meeting expectations in front of goal. His shot map from last season shows a clear overperformance — perhaps down to elite finishing and some sub-par goalkeeping — with not that many shots in highly lucrative areas.
Compare that to his shot map from this term and the large white dots (missed chances) from within the 12-yard range stand out, showing how he is underperforming in an area where he previously took full advantage.
That is reflected in this graphic showing how Mbappe’s goals compare with his expected goals over time. The red shade indicates where a player is scoring below the quality of chances they received and the blue shade shows when they are scoring above expectation. Mbappe has fluctuated in his goalscoring — and has underperformed his xG previously — but there is a clear decline this season.
Often, Mbappe has produced the right movement but not the finish to match. In this example against Real Valladolid, a chance which had an xG value of 0.63, Vinicius Jr plays a ball across goal and Mbappe makes a clever run into the six-yard area — but his flicked effort with his left boot is behind him and is straight at goalkeeper Karl Hein. Perhaps a more straightforward style of finish would have produced a better result.
There are other moments that seem to illustrate a lack of confidence.
This is perhaps the worst of Mbappe’s open-play misses so far for Madrid. In the 74th minute against Getafe — in which Mbappe had scored the second to put Madrid 2-0 up — he is sent through one-on-one against Getafe goalkeeper David Soria, rounds him and is faced with practically an empty net. But he is off balance as he sends a weak, right-footed shot just past the post. This chance had an xG of 0.62.
It is not just in open play that Mbappe has looked off — his penalties have been poor, too.
Between 2018 and 2022, across the top 30 European leagues, the percentage of penalties scored was 79 per cent, according to the CIES Football Observatory.
Mbappe’s penalty record before this year was 38 scored from 46 spot kicks, at a conversion rate of 83 per cent. He was not in the elite bracket of strikers like Harry Kane (scored 84 from 95 — 88 per cent), Erling Haaland (47/53 — 89 per cent) and Robert Lewandowski (84/94 — 89 per cent), but his record was pretty good and above average.
But since the turn of the year, he has scored seven and missed four for club(s) and country — which is quite a steep drop to 64 per cent.
Two of those misses have come in recent weeks for Madrid, first in the defeat to Liverpool, then in the loss to Athletic — and they were almost carbon copies of one another. There was a short pause between the whistle being blown and him starting his run-up, he kept his eyes on the goalkeeper, opened his body up and curled a right-footed shot to the right side of the goal. Both were at a saveable height, too. After each was saved, Mbappe looked crestfallen.
Madrid share the penalties between Mbappe, Vinicius Jr and Jude Bellingham, which is unusual at an elite club. But with Vinicius Jr soon to return from injury and having scored six from six for Madrid (all in 2024), perhaps that might be about to change.
Club sources — who, like all those cited in this article, asked to remain anonymous in order to speak freely — trust Mbappe will end up shining as he did in Paris.
They believe he experienced a difficult few years at PSG, which dented his confidence. In 2021, he first voiced his desire to leave for Madrid and PSG refused to let him go. In 2022, he agreed to a surprise renewal. In 2023, he and the club entered a stand-off after he refused to activate a one-year extension. In 2024, he was finally presented as a Madrid player at a packed Santiago Bernabeu.
The coaching staff knew they would have to change some of his traits from PSG, such as a perceived lack of discipline and off-the-ball work. Some within the staff feel his efforts have not been up to scratch in certain games — such as in El Clasico, where they think he showed a lack of concentration given the team had specifically trained to beat Barcelona’s high lines in the days before the game.
There seems to have been some progress made in that sense in recent games, with Ancelotti saying Mbappe is “more active now” after games against Getafe and Athletic. However, this graphic from before the Athletic match shows how Mbappe has attempted just three tackles in La Liga, with two being successful.
Despite all the noise surrounding his form, his recent exclusion from the France squad, and the allegations in Sweden, Mbappe has been calm and confident around the club, without wanting to be the centre of attention.
So what do sports psychologists think is behind Mbappe’s loss of confidence?
“When do more deaths occur: climbing or descending Everest? Coming down because you relax, because you have fulfilled the dream, the parasympathetic (nervous) system loosens up,” Sara Martinez de Espejo, a psychologist specialising in sport and high performance who works with La Liga side Leganes, tells The Athletic.
“Both the club and the player himself have been chasing this Everest for seven years and nobody has been able to foresee what happens after that.”
Maria Blanco, a sports psychologist at the TYM Centre and for Mexican women’s team FC Juarez, sees some positive “behaviours and attitudes” in Mbappe’s recent performances that show he is “looking for the confidence he had”.
“The fact that the other day (against Athletic) he wanted to take the penalty, even if he missed, means that he is working on this,” Blanco tells The Athletic.
“He is in a resilient phase. A goal is a result that doesn’t depend exclusively on him, but other actions such as breaking into space, shooting from outside the box, taking responsibility for a penalty. All these things increase the probability of success and improve his confidence.”
Mbappe has scored twice in his last three games for Madrid (Guillermo Martinez)
“In the end, there are very few things that elite athletes can control,” adds Martinez de Espejo. “One of the few things you can control yourself is attitude.”
Scoring goals in recent games has led to Mbappe playing with more freedom. In Madrid’s last game against Girona at the weekend, he scored a goal from a difficult angle in the 62nd minute and produced an outstanding second half on the left wing. David Lopez, Girona’s captain and centre-back who had to deal with him that day, was impressed.
“Mbappe’s most characteristic facet is his first 10-15 metres — he has a start that means you can’t catch him,” Lopez tells The Athletic. “He is a fast player, he has a good top speed, but his acceleration is spectacular. He seems to go on tiptoes, without touching the ground. With his acceleration, he is able to control and orientate the ball well in that fast stride.”
Sergio Gonzalez, the Leganes defender and captain who faced him in Mbappe’s previous La Liga match, tried everything to put the Frenchman off his game — but he still scored.
“What I worked on during the game was to cover the space, to give him a metre of distance to cover his runs,” Gonzalez tells The Athletic. “When they pass the ball to his feet, you have to try to make sure he receives it with his back to the ball and that he doesn’t turn.
“He’s in the process of adapting. Players with so much talent have to get to know each other and find their place on the pitch because he was playing on the wing and now he’s playing as a striker. He also has to adapt to the change of team, of league… it is an adaptation that is not easy.”
In September, Mbappe’s idol and Madrid legend Cristiano Ronaldo was asked about the pressures that came with signing for the club in the context of the Frenchman’s arrival.
Speaking about the new generation of players who could win the Ballon d’Or, Ronaldo told the Rio Ferdinand Presents YouTube show: “Let’s see if their head is clear and good and if they can deal with the pressure, because Real Madrid is not PSG, I can tell you.
“It’s a different environment, the Spanish are different, but I believe that he’s going to do it very well.”
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On Sunday, Canal Plus showed their exclusive interview with Mbappe, in which he responded to claims about his lack of confidence.
“I had moments when I was tired, but I wasn’t depressed,” he said. “There are people who are very depressed, we have to help them. At one point I felt exhausted because I haven’t rested. I have had sporting disappointments. But the other thing is just talking for the sake of talking, which is free.”
Sports psychologist Blanco thinks doing that interview is proof of Mbappe fronting up to his struggles.
“We cannot compare Mbappe with the cases of years ago because the media exposure is different, the sources of pressure are different, but above all greater,” she says.
“The interview is a way of letting go or releasing ideas — an exercise of introspection and saying that what is happening is the most normal thing in the world.”
Tonight, Mbappe will face an in-form Atalanta in the Champions League in a game that Madrid could really do with winning. They are 24th from 36 teams after five matches and Mbappe has scored once. Last season, he managed eight in the competition.
Ancelotti, and the Madrid fans, will hope that he continues his upward curve in getting back to his electric best.
Additional contributor: Thom Harris
(Top photo: Eric Alonso/Getty Images)
