Promotion to the Premier League is complicated. But is survival really impossible? | American football

TOAnd so the year ends, as always seemed likely, with the last three places in the standings. first division occupied by the three promoted sides. With Wolves and Crystal Palace resurgent and Everton under new owners having found the solidity that is always the key strength of Sean Dyche's sides, the situation is bleak for the three who currently find themselves in the relegation zone. Everyone will have their own reflections on the first half of the season but, more broadly, the picture is worrying: all three promoted teams were relegated last season and the gulf between the Premier League and the Championship is becoming almost unbelievably wide.

Bottom club Southampton is 10 points away from safety. Realistically, they probably need to average a point and a half per game from here to stay on top, meaning they're almost down. The two games since Russell Martin was sacked have shown improvement, but even then struggles at Fulham and Crystal Palace have yielded a single point. Perhaps they would have had a better chance of survival if they hadn't been stuck to a high-risk passing style that kept giving up possession in dangerous areas but in truth, this never looked anything like a Premier League team. The priority now must be acquiring the six points they need to avoid breaking Derby's season record of 11 points.

Ipswich, six points better even before Monday's game against Chelsea, have made a slightly less daunting return to the Premier League with Omari Hutchinson, Leif Davis and especially Liam Delap looking as if they could thrive at the highest level. They have rarely been outplayed, but they have drawn too many games where, with a clearer lead, they could have won something and they have yet to win a home game.

Leicester perhaps have the best chance of staying top and look more comfortable on the ball than their rivals in the bottom quarter of the table, but they have been too open under Ruud van Nistelrooy. Even when they took four points from their first two games in charge, against West Ham and Brighton, there was a sense that they had benefited from their opponents' profligacy. They have conceded 19.2 shots per game in their six games in charge so far and, although the trend is heading in the right direction despite playing Liverpool and Manchester City in their last two games, toughening up has come at a cost: they have scored. only once in his last four games. They will most likely fight Wolves, and possibly Everton, to avoid the final relegation spot.

It is true that in 2022-23 none of the promoted teams fell and all three (Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest) continue to prosper. But both Fulham and Bournemouth had recent extended Premier League experience, while Forest spent heavily which ultimately led to a four-point deduction for non-compliance from the PSR; This is not to suggest that they acted cynically in pointing out that from their current position in second place, that may seem like a worthwhile sacrifice. If Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton go down this season, it will be 10 of the last 15 promoted teams that will go down again.

When the Premier League was first reduced to 20 teams in 1996-97, the three promoted teams averaged 44.3 points. Last season it was only 22.0. A five-year moving average shows that number holding steady at over 41 until 2004-05, then falling to 36 or 37 even before last year's record low. This season, all three promoted teams are on track to set a new record low of 21.7. At the same time, Sheffield United and Burnley, both relegated last season, are second and third in the Championship, with Leeds, who were relegated last season, leading the table.

The feeling is that of a mezzanine of clubs driven by the parachute payments they receive during the three years after relegation, too good for the Championship but not good enough for the Premier League. Although the playing field in the second flight may be eased by proposals to eliminate parachute payments, their removal would discourage investment by promoted teams and would likely make it more difficult for them to remain in the Premier League.

Promotion to the best league in the world should perhaps be difficult, but if survival becomes effectively impossible, there are two major drawbacks. Firstly, the Premier League as a whole is diminished by a weak bottom. And secondly, it has become common to hear fans of Championship teams question whether promotion is really worth it.

Which raises fundamental questions. English football for more than a century has been based on the pyramid concept, the idea that, through diligence, application and inspiration, teams can slowly rise and perhaps take their place among the elite. This is seriously called into question if the distribution of resources is such that there are seemingly unbridgeable chasms between divisions. Quality at the top end is essential; The question is how to smooth the slope so that it does not come at the expense of the rich hinterlands that remain the hallmark of English football.

This is an excerpt from Soccer with Jonathan Wilson, Guardian US' weekly look at the game in Europe and beyond. Subscribe for free here. Do you have any questions for Jonathan? Email footballwithjw@theguardian.comand will answer the best in a future edition.