Liverpool's Christmas wobble won't matter if rivals can't punish them | American football

tRaces are never just about the winners. In other circumstances, a streak of three draws in six games for Liverpool could be cause for concern. Are they getting tougher? Is there any validity to that vague feeling that the calendar has so far been kind to them? But even if there is, it doesn't really matter. Before the first of those draws, at Newcastle on 4 December, they were nine points ahead of Arsenal in second place; After Sunday's draw at home to Manchester United, they are six points ahead of Arsenal with a game in hand.

And that has really been the story of the past month, the big frenzied splurge of the festive period. There has been a lot of heat and light, a lot of drama and emotion, and in the end not much has changed. Liverpool were far from their best on Sunday, they could easily have suffered a surprise defeat, but in seven of the last nine matchdays, the chasing group of Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City have managed one or fewer wins between them. Admittedly, that leaves Nottingham Forest, who will move closer to six points with a game in hand if they beat Wolves on Monday, and who are Liverpool's next league rival, but it has been a notable achievement for Nuno Espírito's side Holy get to where they are; Realistically, there will be some drop off in the second half of the season.

City are 12 points behind Liverpool having played one more game, their race will surely run. Back-to-back wins over Leicester and West Ham were essential in reviving them and getting Erling Haaland back to scoring goals, but in both games they were much more open than Pep Guardiola expected and in the away games at Brentford and Ipswich. You can test them even before the brutal six-week run that begins against Paris Saint-Germain on January 22 and includes matches against Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham and Forest, as well as a decisive European encounter with Club Brugge.

Chelsea were the real underdogs of the festive period, taking just two points from four games, undone by an over-reliance on Cole Palmer and by chasing games with a naivete that seemed to expose their lack of experience, something Enzo Maresca had always done. He probably acknowledged every time he was asked if Chelsea were title contenders.

But it is Arsenal who perhaps feel the greatest sense of regret. After overcoming Bukayo Saka's injury, illness and falling behind to beat Brentford, it looked like they might be about to strike. And they have faced seven of the other nine teams in the current top half away from home this season (Liverpool have faced seven of them at home). But then, after having outplayed Brighton in the first half, they ended up failing to beat them. The penalty decision was, admittedly, unusual, but they still found themselves in a position where misfortune could occur and that has been the story all season. Arsenal have dropped points in nine league games and, in at least five of them, the damage has felt self-inflicted. Had they won on Saturday, the pressure on Liverpool would have been that fraction greater on Sunday, particularly when United took the lead. As it was, Liverpool's draw, in a match they were expected to win, simply kept their lead a week closer to the finish line.

The game at Anfield was possibly the best of the season so far. This is what midwinter games are supposed to be like: a persistent rain of sleet, snow piled up on the sides of the field, steam rising from disheveled players, the stands a little darker than usual because the coats are darker. Most people's coats are still black or navy blue, a competition that defied expectations.

United were much better than they had been in the four-game losing streak they had come into the game on, much better than anyone had thought they could be, and that should be encouraging: when Ruben Amorim has time to work with them in the training field, they are capable of improving. However, the extent of their celebrations after Lisandro Martínez's first goal seemed almost an expression of disbelief, and the quick concession of the equalizer was an indication of minds addled by emotion. However, managing games is a secondary challenge; You have to be in them first, and United at least achieved that.

Meanwhile, Liverpool know they may have gotten away with it. Trent Alexander-Arnold had a game to forget and never had the control in midfield that might have been anticipated. But without a sustained challenge from its main rivals, it may not matter. There are elements that will worry Arne Slot, but they would worry him much more if Liverpool were not so clear.

This is an excerpt from Soccer with Jonathan Wilson, Guardian US' weekly look at the game in Europe and beyond. Subscribe for free here. Do you have any questions for Jonathan? Email footballwithjw@theguardian.comand will answer the best in a future edition.