We’ve reached that point of the season when the Champions League group stage concludes with a grand flou… oh no we haven’t. This is 2024-25, so matchday six is now merely the 75 per cent point of the league stage, with two further rounds of games in January to come.
But that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty to get stuck into this week. Liverpool face their first early kick-off in this season’s competition away at Girona on Tuesday, while Wednesday sees Borussia Dortmund and Barcelona take each other on in another clash close to the summit. And Real Madrid and Manchester City will look to break out of their slumps with difficult trips to Italy (against Atalanta and Juventus, respectively).
With help from The Athletic’s Opta-powered Champions League projections, here are the key fixtures that could dictate movement in the table and future fortunes this week. Click the link below to explore further.
GO DEEPER
Champions League projections 2024-25: Each team’s probability of qualifying for knockouts
Girona vs Liverpool – Tuesday, 5.45pm GMT/12:45pm EST
Liverpool are yet to drop a point after five matches and were convincing 2-0 winners against Real Madrid last time out. Even a draw on Tuesday would secure progress into the knockout playoff at the very least for Arne Slot’s men as they would be at least seven points clear of the team in 24th with two games to go. That would merely be the first step, with our projections revealing they have a 98 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight and are the only side predicted to get 20+ points in the maiden league stage.
Girona have struggled in their inaugural European campaign, picking up only one win from five matches with narrow defeats against Paris Saint-Germain, Feyenoord and Sturm Graz. Milan and Arsenal are next, so their chances of league-stage elimination stand at 95 per cent.
Atalanta vs Real Madrid – Tuesday, 8pm GMT/3pm EST
Real Madrid’s injuries have hampered their ability to build chemistry with Kylian Mbappe and has led to inconsistency. Their record over the last seven games in all competitions reads loss, win, win, loss, win, loss, win.
Madrid’s defeat in Liverpool saw their risk of exiting in the league stage rise from five per cent to seven per cent, but they still have a 91 per cent chance of making it to the knockout playoff at least with Red Bull Salzburg at home and Brest away to come after this. In fact, our projections have Real Madrid as the most likely side to feature in the knockout playoffs — not the smooth progression the holders would have hoped for, but at least a chance to regroup in 2025.
But this is a tough fixture. Atalanta have conceded just once in the Champions League and that came in a 6-1 thrashing of Young Boys in Matchweek five. They sit top of Serie A and beat Milan on Friday, extending their winning run to nine games in all competitions. Victory here — especially with Barcelona and Dortmund facing each other — could see their top eight odds (currently at 58 per cent) improve significantly.
Madrid struggled last time out against Liverpool (Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images)
Bayer Leverkusen vs Inter – Tuesday, 8pm GMT/3pm EST
Leverkusen and Inter have taken differing approaches but find themselves in similar positions. Xabi Alonso’s side have netted 11 times and let in five, while Inter’s resolute defence means they are the only team yet to concede a goal in this season’s competition, but have scored only seven at the other end.
Leverkusen’s odds of finishing in the top eight are at 39 per cent with a visit to Atletico Madrid in January, so any points here will be crucial. Inter, meanwhile, picked up four points from their toughest fixtures against Manchester City and Arsenal, making their finish to the league stage (away at Sparta Prague and Monaco at home) comparatively straightforward. As it stands, our Opta-powered projections have Inter as narrow favourites to win the Champions League, ahead of Liverpool and Arsenal.
Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona – Wednesday, 8pm GMT/3pm EST
Barcelona have enjoyed success against German opposition, beating Bayern Munich 4-1 at home in matchday three — just 24 hours after Dortmund conceded five second-half goals and lost 5-2 against Real Madrid after going 2-0 up after 34 minutes.
But the situation six weeks later is different. Barcelona are facing their first wobble under Hansi Flick, picking up only two wins in their last six outings in all competitions. One of those was against Brest in their last Champions League match, which boosted their chances of direct qualification into the round of 16 to a very healthy 76 per cent.
Dortmund are still finding themselves under Nuri Sahin but are unbeaten in their last four matches, a run which includes a 1-1 draw with Bayern in the Bundesliga. They beat Dinamo Zagreb 3-0 last time out in the Champions League, so their chances of a top-eight finish are at a bullish 75 per cent.
Barcelona thrashed Bayern on Matchday three (David Ramos/Getty Images)
Barcelona end the league stage with tricky fixtures against Benfica (away) and Atalanta (home), so probably have more riding on this game as Dortmund will take on Bologna (away) and Shakhtar Donetsk (home) in January.
Juventus vs Manchester City – Wednesday, 8pm GMT/3pm EST
For both these teams, the focus has largely been on their underperformance in the league. Juventus, yet to lose in Serie A, have drawn nine of their 15 league games and are sixth, while City have lost four of their 15 — already more than in the entirety of their title-winning 2021-22 and 2023-24 seasons — and are fourth.
Wednesday’s match, therefore, represents an opportunity to generate momentum while getting their Champions League campaigns on track. Both teams have eight points after five matches, while Leverkusen, Arsenal and Monaco, who round out the top eight as it stands, have 10 each.
Juventus and Man City both play Club Brugge in their final home fixtures of the league phase. The Italian side travel to Benfica for their final game, while Man City travel to PSG on matchday seven. That surely means that Juventus, who have a nine per cent chance of finishing in the top eight compared to City’s 15, have more riding on this game, especially in front of their home crowd.
(Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
Around the league
- Arsenal face an upbeat Monaco in a match that could see one of the two drop out of the top eight by end of play on Wednesday. Arsenal have a 70 per cent chance of directly qualifying for the round of 16 in comparison to Monaco’s 15 per cent, so the French side probably need the points more.
- Celtic have recovered admirably from their 7-1 defeat by Dortmund in Matchweek two, collecting five points from the last three matches. A win at Dinamo Zagreb, who are only a point behind them, would give them a boost with Young Boys up next.
- Defeat against Bayern in matchweek five left PSG just outside the knockout spots. Anything less than a victory at Red Bull Salzburg, who have also won just once, and the sound of the already-ringing alarm bells will border on cacophonous.
(Header photo: Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images)
