Champions League state of play: What Liverpool and Aston Villa need to seal an automatic spot in the last-16… with Man City, PSG and Real Madrid at risk

By premiernews On Nov 28, 2024

We are almost nearing the business end of the 2024-25 Champions League and many questions have still yet to be answered.

Whilst Liverpool, Inter Milan and Barcelona are well enroute to secure a top eight spot, some European Giants are at risk of not even making the play-offs.

With only three matches remaining in the revamped Champions League’s new league phase, defending champions Real Madrid find themselves just two points above the elimination zone in 24th following their 2-0 defeat to Liverpool at Anfield.

Los Blancos are now just one spot above French champions PSG who are currently sitting in the relegation zone, with both sides needing results to go their way in the remaining league games to avoid elimination.

Following Manchester City‘s recent stitch of bad form, most recently squandering a 3-0 lead to draw 3-3 with Feyenoord on matchday five, Pep Guardiola‘s men have severely damaged their hopes of automatic qualification.

Here is the current state-of-play in the Champions League after matchday five.

Liverpool sit top of the table at end of matchday five from the Champions League league phase

They beat defending champions Real Madrid 2-0, who now find themselves at risk of elimination from the competition

Only three matchdays remain for teams to secure their spot in the knockout round

Arne Slot’s Liverpool find themselves on top of the league table, boasting a perfect record of five wins from five.

The Reds with fifteen points, are the only side to pick up all available points and are currently certain of at least a play-off spot, although according to Opta’s pre-tournament simulations, they more than likely have enough points to reach the last-16.

Italian champions Inter Milan occupy second place with 13 points, just two behind Slot’s side.

Simone Inzaghi’s men alongside fifth-placed Atalanta are the only other two sides besides Liverpool who remain unbeaten so far in the league.

After an opening round defeat to Monaco, Hansi Flick’s Barcelona have looked in great shape and have been drilling in the goals, finding the back of the net 17 times in their last four games, to move them up to third place with 12 points.

Borussia Dortmund slot into fourth place on 12 points, followed by Atalanta on 11.

Liverpool are not the only English side currently sitting in an automatic last-16 spot. Mikel Arteta’s Gunners find themselves in seventh with 10 points following their 5-1 victory against Sporting on Tuesday,

They are even on points with seven other clubs, with Bayer Leverkusen above them in sixth through goal difference. Monaco complete the top eight as it stands.

Arne Slot’s Liverpool find themselves on top of the league table, boasting a perfect record of five wins from five

Hansi Flick’s Barcelona have looked in great shape and have been drilling in the goals, finding the back of the net 17 times in their last four games

As it stands Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal are in the top eight which promises automatic qualification to the last-16

Unai Emery’s Aston Villa sit in ninth on 10 points only separated from their London rivals on goal difference.

The Lions began their maiden campaign in the Champions League strongly, winning their opening three games but fell down in the standings following a loss to Club Brugge and only managing a draw against Juventus.

To many people’s surprise there are plenty of European giants outside the top eight.

Premier League champions Manchester City is the standout, with Pep Gaurdiola’s men sitting way down in 17th, managing only eight points from their opening five games.

Harry Kane’s Bayern Munich are another shocking omission from the top eight, sitting in 13th on nine points.

They are level on points with some other European heavyweights who many believed would be higher up in the table at this stage of the league phase.

Benfica in 14th, Atletico Madrid in 13th, and AC Milan in 16th have all managed only eight points from their five games.

Just behind Man City are Italian giants Juventus in 19th and Scottish champions Celtic in 20th, sandwiched between the Manchester side and Juventus in 18th is PSV.

Harry Kane’s Bayern Munich are one of the shocking omission from the top eight, sitting in 13th on nine points

Premier League champions Manchester City sit way down in 17th, managing only eight points from their opening five games

Feyenoord (21st), Club Brugge (22) and GNK Dinamo (23) all find themselves occupying a knockout phase play-off spot on seven points apiece with Real Madrid making up the final spot on six points.

French champions PSG are the biggest name currently not occupying a play-off spot, they find themselves two points behind Real Madrid in 25th place, after only picking up one win in five games.

Who qualifies for the knockout phase?

Out of the 36 teams involved in the league phase of the Champions League, those who finish in the top eight of the table will automatically progress to the last-16 of the tournament.

Team’s who placed between ninth and 16th will be seeded and drawn against one of the club’s who finished 17th to 24th, where they will play a two-legged knockout play-off.

The winner’s of the eight play-off games will then progress to the round of 16 where they will come up against those who finished in the top eight.

Those who finish 25th or lower will be eliminated from the tournament and unlike previous year’s, they will not go down to play in the Europa League, they will be knocked out of Europe all together.

Teams who finish in the top eight of the table will automatically progress to the last-16 of the tournament

Team’s who placed between ninth and 16th will be seeded and drawn against one of the club’s who finished 17th to 24th, where they will play a two-legged knockout play-off

How many points do teams need to qualify?

As this is an unprecedented first in European club football, the points criteria to make the knockout stage is not clear.

However before this season Opta calculated each teams’ projected points tallies and the odds they would progress past the league phase.

The permutations estimated that 16 points would give teams a 98% chance of finishing in the top eight and progressing straight to the last-16 as a seeded team.

It also predicted that if a team finished the league phase on ten points, it would give them a 99% chance of qualifying within the top 24 and securing at least a spot in the play-off ties.

Teams with nine points or lower through their calculations did not make it past the league stage.

Current league phase table standings

Remaining league phase fixtures

Matchday Four

Tuesday, December 10

Girona vs Liverpool (18:45)
GNK Dinamo vs Celtic (18:45)
Atalanta vs Real Madrid
Bayer Leverkusen vs Inter
Club Brugge vs Sporting CP
Salzburg vs Paris Saint-Germain
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Bayern Munich
Leipzig vs Aston Villa
Brest vs PSV Eindhoven

Wednesday, December 11

Atletico de Madrid vs Slovan Bratislava (18:45)
LOSC Lille vs Sturm Graz (18:45)
AC Milan vs Crvena Zvezda
Arsenal vs Monaco
Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona
Feyenoord vs Sparta Praha
Juventus vs Manchester City
Benfica vs Bologna
Stuttgart vs Young Boys

Matchday Five

Tuesday, January 21

Monaco vs Aston Villa
Atalanta vs Sturm Graz
Atletico de Madrid vs Bayer Leverkusen
Bologna vs Borussia Dortmund
Club Brugge vs Juventus
Crvena Zvezda vs PSV Eindhoven
Liverpool vs LOSC Lille
Slovan Bratislava vs Stuttgart
Benfica vs Barcelona

Matchday Six

Wednesday, January 22

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Brest
Leipzig vs Sporting CP
AC Milan vs Girona
Sparta Praha vs Inter
Arsenal vs GNK Dinamo
Celtic vs Young Boys
Feyenoord vs Bayern Munich
Real Madrid vs Salzburg

Wednesday 29 January

Aston Villa vs Celtic
Bayer Leverkusen vs Sparta Praha
Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Young Boys vs Crvena Zvezda
Barcelona vs Atalanta
Bayern Munich vs Slovan Bratislava
Inter vs Monaco
Salzburg vs Atletico de Madrid
Girona vs Arsenal
GNK Dinamo vs AC Milan
Juventus vs Benfica
LOSC Lille vs Feyenoord
Manchester City vs Club Brugge
PSV Eindhoven vs Liverpool
Sturm Graz vs Leipzig
Sporting CP vs Bologna
Brest vs Real Madrid
Stuttgart vs Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain vs Manchester City

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