Cole Palmer and Erling Haaland lead the way, but Ollie Watkins is vastly outperforming his xG and Alexander Isak has the best minutes per goal ratio… so who WILL win the Premier League Golden Boot?
As the Premier League enters its final stage, we are all set for a dramatic end to the season.
The 2023-24 campaign has treated us to a three-way title race, an enthralling battle to avoid the drop and a see-saw struggle between Aston Villa and Tottenham to qualify for the Champions League.
We’re also approaching the time for individual accolades, with the likes of Rodri, Phil Foden, Declan Rice and Cole Palmer among those in the running for the esteemed PFA Player of the Year award.
Another much-coveted honour is the Golden Boot, with Palmer and his former Man City team-mate Erling Haaland leading the way on 20 goals, but the likes of Ollie Watkins, Mohamed Salah, Dominic Solanke and Alexander Isak remain in the running.
In light of the competition – which sees six English stars in the top 10 goalscorers list – Mail Sport takes a look at the major runners and riders in the battle to win the Golden Boot.
Cole Palmer’s four goals against Everton sent him top of the Premier League’s scoring charts
Palmer is level on 20 goals with Erling Haaland, who won the Golden Boot last season
Cole Palmer – 20 goals
You would have got good odds on Cole Palmer being in the running for the Golden Boot back in the summer when the 21-year-old was merely a promising youngster and bench player at Man City.
But ever since his £42.5million move to Chelsea, Palmer has been sensational and thoroughly deserves to be in the conversation for the Premier League’s Player of the Season.
His 20 goals and nine assists have carried an otherwise uninspiring and grim campaign for Mauricio Pochettino’s side and Palmer has rightfully been rewarded with England honours.
His four goals against Everton on Monday shot the attacking midfielder to the top of the scoring charts, and although he has netted nine penalties, this shouldn’t take anything away from the Chelsea star.
In fact, Palmer is vastly outperforming his stats, with his 20 strikes coming from an xG of 14.95.
On paper, Chelsea’s fixtures do look tricky, which could impact Palmer’s hopes of winning the Golden Boot, but as he’s shown with goals against City, Man United, Tottenham and Arsenal, the 21-year is somewhat fixture resistant.
Remaining fixtures – Arsenal (A), Aston Villa (A), Tottenham (H), West Ham (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Brighton (A), Bournemouth (H)
Palmer is well in the running after carrying an otherwise grim and uninspiring Chelsea season
Chelsea’s fixtures are tricky, but Palmer has scored in several big games over the campaign
Erling Haaland – 20 goals
Erling Haaland was always going to find it hard to live up to the near-impossible standards he set last season with a record 36 league goals.
It’s still been an impressive campaign by the Norwegian, who has netted 20 times in just 26 games, but Haaland has received his fair share of criticism, with Roy Keane most notably labelling the 23-year-old a ‘League Two striker’ last month.
Given his record, you can never put it past Haaland suddenly clicking into gear and adding to his astonishing knack of scoring hat-tricks.
However, Haaland has lacked a clinical touch at points this season, with the City star underperforming his xG by 3.69, while his 3.92 shots per game are the most of any of his fellow contenders.
City do possibly face the easiest run-in of the three title hopefuls, so you would expect Haaland to add to his tally, although Pep Guardiola’s side take on bogey team Tottenham during the final week of the season.
With six goals in his past 13 matches in the top flight, Haaland will need to up his game, but there is a reason why he is still the bookies’ favourite to win the Golden Boot for a second successive season.
Remaining fixtures – Brighton (A), Nottingham Forest (A), Wolves (H), Fulham (A), Tottenham (A), West Ham (H)
Haaland has struggled to hit the heights of his record-breaking campaign from 2022-23
But the Norwegian has still scored 20 goals and remains the favourite to win the Golden Boot
Palmer, Haaland and Watkins remain the frontrunners in the battle to win the Golden Boot
Ollie Watkins – 19 goals
Ollie Watkins is symptomatic of Aston Villa’s improvements under Unai Emery, with the 28-year-old developing from an inconsistent talent to the best English striker in the Premier League.
After edging out Danny Ings as first choice last season, Watkins is the undisputed star man at Villa, while he has also become a leader in the dressing room.
His 19 goals come from an xG of 15.44 and his stats are even more impressive given that out of the top six Golden Boot contenders, Watkins is the only one not on penalties.
While it doesn’t contribute to the award, his 10 assists similarly show how rounded the Exeter City youth product has become.
Villa only have five games left in their race for the top four, although none of the teams they face are looking particularly solid at the back right now.
Watkins’ finish for Villa’s second against Arsenal on Sunday showed just how far he has come and you wouldn’t put it past him challenging Palmer and Haaland right to the end.
Remaining fixtures – Bournemouth (H), Chelsea (H), Brighton (A), Liverpool (H), Crystal Palace (A)
Ollie Watkins remains in the race for the Golden Boot after outperforming his xG this season
Watkins scored a sumptuous chip in Aston Villa’s memorable victory over Arsenal on Sunday
Salah, Isak and Solanke have also enjoyed impressive seasons and could still win the accolade
Mohamed Salah – 17 goals
Mohamed Salah is currently experiencing a rare struggle in front of goal, which comes at a time when Liverpool’s season is in danger of falling apart.
Since heading off for AFCON in January, the Egyptian has scored three league goals, amid a battle for form and fitness.
The Reds have been wasteful and that has been highlighted by Salah, with the 31-year-old guilty of missing several gilt-edged chances over the past month.
His profligacy in front of goal is exemplified by 17 strikes from an xG of 18.27 and comes despite having an average 3.58 shots per game, a record that is only bettered by Haaland among his Golden Boot rivals.
It feels very much as if Liverpool’s hopes of giving Jurgen Klopp a perfect farewell rely on their talisman returning to form, and there is every possibility of that given the Reds’ run-in, but Salah must step-up if he is to win a record fourth Golden Boot.
Remaining fixtures – Fulham (A), Everton (A), West Ham (A), Tottenham (H), Aston Villa (A), Wolves (H)
Mohamed Salah has had a rare dip in form over recent weeks amid Liverpool’s struggles
But the Egyptian star still has 17 goals this season and you would back him to return to form
Alexander Isak – 17 goals
Given Alexander Isak’s fitness record, it is a brilliant achievement from the Swede to even be in the conversation for the Golden Boot.
Amid the myriad of injury problems Newcastle have faced this season, losing Isak for a quarter of their 32 Premier League matches has been a major blow.
Yet, when he is fit, there is a reason Isak is linked to major clubs across Europe and his £60million arrival from Real Sociedad in the summer of 2022 is starting to look somewhat of a snip.
Isak has 17 goals at a remarkable rate of one every 104 minutes and he tore apart Tottenham’s defence on Saturday as Newcastle romped home 4-0.
With seven goals in his last six games, and at a time where Howe’s side are seemingly coming into form, if Isak can maintain his fitness then there is no reason for his scoring run to be halted, amid a relatively friendly fixture list.
Remaining fixtures – Crystal Palace (A), Sheffield United (H), Burnley (A), Brighton (H), Man United (A), Brentford (A)
Alexander Isak has battled fitness issue, but his impact on Newcastle can’t be overstated
The Swedish striker has a remarkable record of one goal for every 104 minutes of action
Dominic Solanke – 17 goals
After netting 10 times in his first 96 Premier League appearances, Dominic Solanke’s record of 17 goals in 32 matches this season highlights his dramatic development.
Leading the line under Andoni Iraola, Solanke has had more opportunities than his previous top flight campaigns, but his rise epitomises the impressive year Bournemouth are having.
The former Chelsea youngster has been integral and he is unfortunate not to be in the conversation for England honours.
Solanke’s exploits have also seen him break the record for the most Premier League goals scored in a single season by a Bournemouth player.
Dominic Solanke remains an outside contender for the Golden Boot after netting 17 goals
The former Chelsea youngster is enjoying the most prolific season of his burgeoning career
Solanke’s record of a goal every 168 minutes is impressive, yet it is beaten by his fellow contenders for the Golden Boot.
Nevertheless, he has firmly put himself in line for a move to Big Six club this summer and although Bournemouth have a difficult end to the season, Solanke – who scored against Man United last week – should still find the back of the net plenty more times to cap the most prolific campaign of his career.
Remaining fixtures – Aston Villa (A), Wolves (A), Brighton (H), Arsenal (A), Brentford (H), Chelsea (A)
