High lines and counterattacks: the tactics that could decide Liverpool-Manchester City | first division

Núñez and the high line

Pep Guardiola's teams have always been vulnerable to balls played behind their defensive line. It's inherent to the high pressure that makes its teams so good at regaining possession: you can't have one without the other (which is one of the enduring strengths of football as a sport: nothing positive comes completely without something negative). ; there is no “best” way to play).

Over the last 15 years, Guardiola's great struggle has been trying to mitigate risk, and his less orthodox attempts to do so underlie “overthinking”: the 4-4-2. at Anfield in 2018the three defenders against Lyon in 2020, the absence of Ilkay Gündogan in the 2021 Champions League final – who has been widely blamed for the series of unexpected disappointments he suffered between his second and third wins in the competition.

Since the arrival of Erling Haaland, as City has done started to play more directly to take advantage of their ability to burst past the last defender, without establishing themselves with a series of neutral passes to resist a possible counterattack in the event of a loss of possession, the problem has been compounded: Crystal Palace are the only team to have conceded more goals to counterattacks than City in the Premier League this season.

That represents a particular problem against Liverpool, who are so good at winning the ball back and attacking in transition (they have scored the third-most goals on counterattacks this season, despite averaging over 60% possession). Much of Liverpool's games this season appear to have involved Darwin Núñez advances space towards the goal with varying degrees of confidence. There's absolutely no pattern to what happens next: your shot might go wide, it might hit the goalkeeper, or you might score with that kind of hysterically slick shot. executed against Brentford. This looks like a game in which the Uruguayan could score a brilliant hat-trick, but he could also be blamed for wasting a lot of presentable opportunities.

Counter the counterthreat

It's hard to believe that Guardiola isn't going to take steps to prevent this from being reduced to a one-on-one between Núñez and Ederson. Given his track record, frankly, he could propose almost anything and isn't afraid of counterintuitiveness, but it seems like there are a couple of obvious steps he could take.

The first is to try to exert more control in midfield by not going so directly at Haaland, returning to the basic principle he used to use of recovering the ball and, unless the through pass is completely obvious, making about 15 passes to get the shape right at the back of midfield and only then start an attack.

The other major reason why City have turned the ball over more often this season is Jérémy Doku. As exciting as it has been, 4.6 of his 9.4 dribbles per 90 minutes have been unsuccessful. Proportionally, that's not too different from Jack Grealish, who has been successful on 1.6 of his 3.2 dribbles per 90 minutes. But the point is volume; Doku has not yet undergone the reprogramming process that Grealish went through after joining City, making him more risk-averse, more inclined to turn infield and make a simple pass. Not all possession losses are the same.

It's not insignificant that the only really important game Doku has been trusted with so far has been the Liverpool match at the Etihad, when Grealish was not available. Although he has tended to play against lesser opposition, in the league games in which Doku has played, City have conceded 1.29 goals per game, compared to 0.69 when they do not. That suggests Doku will not start on Sunday, which, with Grealish out with a groin problem, will likely mean Phil Foden moves to the left.

The role of stones

One of the main reasons City were so successful in the second half of last season was that they found the auxiliary midfielder they lost by having a centre-forward like Haaland, who tends not to drop deep, in the form of John Stones , taking a step forward. striker from central defense to operate alongside Rodri at the back of midfield. Against Bournemouth Two weeks ago, Stones went much further, sometimes pushing so high that he was playing almost as a second auxiliary forward. Stones and Rodri's deep surges were key to unlock Manchester United's low block last week.

It is safe to assume Liverpool He won't sit as deep and Stones won't do that on Sunday, but it will be intriguing how high he goes. Stay deep as a fairly orthodox central defender and City won't be able to break through in midfield, making it difficult for them to create the kind of control that Guardiola favors. But going up too high and too often could leave Rúben Dias, who hasn't had the best of seasons, isolated against Núñez, which seems like a risk.

Who is in midfield?

It's safe to assume that Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva will start but, if Doku is omitted and Foden operates on the left, in what configuration? Silva will presumably play on the right, which is quite reasonable, although the lack of alternatives is indicative that Riyad Mahrez has not really been replaced. That could mean Julián Álvarez playing right next to Haaland in what would effectively be a 4-2-3-1, but perhaps more likely is Mateo Kovacic coming in, making De Bruyne the most advanced central midfielder in the game. which would be more of a 4-3-3.

The return of Dominik Szoboszlai relieves at least some of the pressure on Liverpool's midfield. Alexis Mac Allister has been in good form and, with Curtis Jones and Ryan Gravenberch injured, the three pick themselves, with Wataru Endo likely coming in now that he has recovered from the knock he suffered in the League Cup final. However, where Liverpool still have a deficit is the absence of Trent Alexander-Arnold. Conor Bradley has excelled recently, but he has nothing like the experience of coming into midfield to try and counter the numerical advantage City are likely to have in that area as Stones step up.