TO The strong centre-back partnership has been the foundation of many of the Premier League's best teams. From Tony Adams and Martin Keown, Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic, John Terry and Ricardo Carvalho, to even the undeniable importance of Wes Morgan and Robert Huth; A stable and reliable partnership is the essence of any great team.
With Arsenal's title challenge backed by a dominant defense led by Gabriel and William Saliba, we investigate the current crop of Premier League centre-backs. What are the most effective combinations? Which teams can barely put up the same partnership week after week? And we are seeing the death of the three in the back?
Arsenal's failure to maintain their title aspirations last year was partly due to the loss of Saliba, who suffered a season-ending injury in March. The drop in quality between Saliba and his deputy, Rob Holding, was evident. Arsenal lost only three of the 27 games that Saliba and Gabriel started together, winning 21 of them (78%). That profit percentage fell to 33% when Holding and Gabriel were partners.
This season, the Gabriel-Saliba axis once again drives Arsenal's title fight. They have started 24 league games together, which, along with Everton's James Tarkowski and Jarrad Branthwaite, is the most of any centre-back pairing in 2023-24. When Gabriel and Saliba have been on the pitch, Arsenal's defensive numbers are absurdly good. Mikel Arteta's men have conceded only 0.76 expected goals per game: the lowest of any centre-back association in the league. They have also kept a clean sheet (nine) and have conceded the fewest shots per 90 minutes (0.9).
The consistency of Arsenal and Everton is followed by Crystal Palace, which has used the combination of Joachim Andersen and Marc Guéhi on 20 occasions, Bournemouth (Illia Zabarnyi and Marcos Senesi 19 times) and Tottenham (Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven 18 times) .
The figure for Romero and Van de Ven would be higher if it were not for the serious hamstring injury that the Dutchman suffered in November of last year. When he is fit, Van de Ven has transformed the way he defends for Tottenham, with his lightning-fast recovery pace allowing Ange Postecoglou's team to play a high, suffocating defensive line. He is also the perfect complement to the aggressive and combative Romero. The Spurs have won 12 of the 18 games (66.7%) those two started together, compared to four of 10 (40%) without either of them starting.
At the other end of the consistency spectrum are Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United and Manchester United (spot the one who's off). Each of their most common centre-back partnerships has started together just six times this season. United's most common centre-back duo has been 36-year-old Jonny Evans and injury-prone Raphaël Varane. Ten Hag has used 11 different centre-back combinations. For a team that has played exclusively with only two centre-backs, that is a lot.
Only two teams have used more unique centre-back combinations and both teams (Luton 14 and Manchester City 13) have often used three centre-halves. Furthermore, Ten Hag's starting centre-back pairing has finished the game in just nine of United's 28 games this season (just 32%, the lowest rate in the league). With such a changeable defense, is it any wonder they gave up 15 or more shots in more than half of his games (57%) this campaign?
The most successful partnerships
Gabriel and Saliba won 17 of the 24 games they started together this season (70.8%), which almost exactly matches Arsenal as a team (20 wins in 28 games, 71.4%). That makes them one of the most successful centre-back partnerships this season, but not the biggest.
That honor goes to Ezri Konsa and Pau Torres at Aston Villa, who have started eight games together and have won seven of them (87.5%). Of other centre-back pairings who have started five or more games together this season, Liverpool's Jarell Quansah and Virgil van Dijk (80%) are the only other pairing to have won 80% or more of their games.
Consider Nottingham Forest duo Murillo and Willy Boly, as well as Anel Ahmedhodzic, Jack Robinson and John Egan at Sheffield United, who have started the most games together in defense (six) without winning any of them. Oh, and Murillo has also started five games under Andrew Omobamidele without winning any either. It's hard.
The death of the last three?
After seeing a gradual increase in the number of teams playing with three centre-backs and full-backs in recent years, in the last two Premier League seasons teams have preferred to opt for the traditional two-man pairing. The rise of the three-man defense increased in the late 2010s. It peaked in 2021–22, with Graham Potter (Brighton), Nuno Espírito Santo (Wolves) and Thomas Tuchel (Chelsea) all using three halves centers regularly.
But that trend has now reversed. Teams from Arsenal to Brighton now play almost exclusively with two centre-backs in a back four, while three others in Chelsea, Crystal Palace (although that will change under Oliver Glasner) and Nottingham Forest (ditto Nuno) have mainly opted. by two centrals. Three teams are flexible in their style: Brentford, Wolves and Sheffield United. Luton are firmly in the centre-back three camp.
Manchester City is a unique case, since Pep Guardiola usually deploys up to four recognized centre-backs in his defensive line. This season he has primarily used two centre-backs (68%), but has occasionally used three (32%). However, it is not in a conventional manner, as Guardiola pushes another of his defenders into midfield to create a 3-2 formation in the build-up, rather than using full-backs.
The underlying numbers
Finally, we can isolate the playing time of centre-back partnerships and look at how the expected goals stack up against the numbers when those players are on the field. Arsenal's pairing of Gabriel and Saliba lead the way, conceding a surprisingly low xG of 0.79 while both are on the pitch. Villa's duo of Konsa and Torres have been almost as tight, giving up just 0.97 xG per 90 minutes, with the former expecting He is making his way into Gareth Southgate's squad for the summer..
Elsewhere, it is perhaps surprising to see the Forest duo of Murillo and Boly rate so highly here, particularly as they are yet to win a game together as a centre-back pairing, but they have been excellent when given the chance. to play together.
Given their positions in the table, it is not surprising to see the defensive combinations of Sheffield United and Luton form some of the most defensively porous partnerships. The trio of Ahmedhodzic, Robinson and Egan are the only centre-back pairing to have conceded more than 3.0+ xG per 90 minutes.
It remains to be seen whether Arsenal fans will ever pronounce the names 'Gabriel and Saliba' with the same deference as 'Keown and Adams'. But if they stay fit, maintain their excellent levels and guide Arsenal to their first league title in 20 years, that potential reality is inching closer.
