How Maresca uses full-backs, analysing fixture difficulty, and a La Liga coach to watch – Tactics mailbag
Earlier this week, we asked for your questions regarding tactics and data across the Premier League and beyond and two of our writers, Thom Harris and Anantaajith Raghuraman, got together to answer a selection of them.
Here are their answers, and please comment below with any other topics you’d like us to look into.
Raav — Hello! As a Chelsea fan, I was wondering why you think when Enzo Maresca inverts his full-backs, they go into one of the No 10 positions instead of joining a holding midfielder as they typically do in other systems. What are the benefits (and downsides) of this?
Hi Raav, great question, thank you!
Maresca is quite rigid when it comes to his tactical approach — namely, building up in a 3-2-5 shape with one full-back stepping into midfield — but he’s been quite reactive when it comes to making small tweaks to his team to ensure Chelsea keep creating those overloads further forward and finding those passes into Cole Palmer, no matter what defensive system they face.
Against Arsenal this weekend, for example, he will have anticipated an aggressive approach from the visitors, who pressed in a 4-2-4 system to try to block out those passes from the likes of Levi Colwill and Wesley Fofana into midfield.
Here, full-back Malo Gusto jumps into the No 10 position — a direct forward runner who can combine well down the flank — to make Declan Rice a bit more uncomfortable as one of those two holding midfielders, attacking the spaces to his left, as we can see in the grab below.
Colwill in particular found Gusto with a few incisive passes on Sunday, particularly in the first half, but the full-back isn’t always a natural receiving the ball in tight spaces, one of the big downsides to this approach.
More generally, however, Maresca likes a Romeo Lavia and Moises Caicedo partnership as the base of the midfield without the ball. Earlier this month, he said he likes the physicality and strength that duo provides in midfield, noting that they can be a little light when Enzo Fernandez plays and pushes forward.
I think we’ll see this setup vary by game, depending on how aggressively Chelsea’s opponents contest the midfield.
Thom Harris
Dan — Hi, maybe a simple question but there have been a few articles this season looking at fixture difficulty and how that has impacted particular teams. What trends are coming up in the next 5-10 games? And how do the models work?
Hi Dan, thank you for your question!
There are several different models out there; some use player strength, others use squad market value, while some more advanced research looks to incorporate things such as home advantage and form to sharpen their predictions.
One of the best free-to-access sources is the Opta Power Rankings. It scores over 13,000 men’s domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, using the ELO rating algorithm. The difference in ratings between the two teams serves as a predictor for the outcome of each match, and whatever one team gains in ELO points from a fixture, the other will lose. So, over a long period, ELO ratings are self-correcting, and give us a solid indicator of team strength.
Looking at their rankings, it suggests that Crystal Palace have the toughest run of fixtures this side of Christmas, with a trip to Aston Villa and home games against Manchester City, Arsenal and Newcastle to come after the international break, while Nottingham Forest, Southampton and Everton are close behind in terms of the average difficulty of their next six games.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Wolves have one of the “easiest” run-ins before Christmas, making up for their tricky start, while Brighton, Chelsea and Arsenal all experience relatively favourable fixture swings according to the model, too.
Thom Harris
Kiran — Who are the tactically exciting managers doing unique things that aren’t getting talked about much?
Hi Kiran, thank you for your question!
There seemed to be a bit of a boom when it came to breakthrough managers last season — The Athletic ran a mini-series on six promising names that you can read here — but it’s harder to pick out some truly under-the-radar names this time around without mentioning the likes of Thiago Motta, Sebastian Hoeness and Michel who have come up in conversation before.
I’ve got a left-field option from La Liga, however: Celta Vigo’s 36-year-old coach Claudio Giraldez. He was promoted from the B team to replace Rafael Benitez at the end of last season and has injected some much-needed dynamism into what was a faltering attack.
Celta coach Claudio Giraldez (Denis Doyle/Getty Images)
He lost Jorgen Strand Larsen to Wolves in the summer and has not been getting the same consistency of output from 37-year-old Iago Aspas as we’ve seen in recent seasons, but Celta are fourth for goals scored this season, and are always a good watch.
The system is an adventurous 3-4-3 and has unleashed former Barcelona man Oscar Mingueza down the right. He has scored twice and assisted five in La Liga this season, with the player dashboard from his performance at Villarreal earlier in the season showing his dominance down the flanks and frequent crosses into the box.
There are defensive issues to iron out, but Giraldez has made this team fun again — and should steer them clear of another relegation scrap this season.
Thom Harris
Tom — As a suffering Tottenham fan, can you tell me with data or tactics that things are going to get better? Thanks!
Thank you for your question, Tom!
On a team level, there is a lot to like about Spurs. They rank high in many metrics, including chance creation, finishing, pressing and duel success. As the graph below shows, only Liverpool and City have a higher expected goal difference per 90 than Spurs this season — it’s a good indicator within the underlying numbers that they are creating chances at a healthier rate at which they are conceding them.
Their organisation from defensive set pieces has improved too, though there are still issues to iron out in that area, while Dominic Solanke has helped them find an edge in finishing chances and leading an effective press.
GO DEEPER
Are Tottenham improving at defending set pieces this season?
With Ange Postecoglou’s style, though, they can be left quite open if they lose the ball and they do that far too often (sixth-most in the league this season), especially in midfield, where Postecoglou seems a little unsure of who out of his options are best-suited to play at the base. Transition defence is definitely an area to work on and teams seem to enjoy success from cutbacks after getting in behind their full-backs.
On an individual level, every game seems to present avoidable personnel errors. Spurs seem most vulnerable in the 15 minutes either side of half-time (eight goals conceded; the same as 20th-placed Southampton). Perhaps, smarter game management in those periods will help balance out the inconsistency. However, as some of our readers have pointed out, every top-four contender bar Liverpool have shown weaknesses that can be exploited, so there are reasons to be optimistic about Spurs in the larger context too.
Anantaajith Raghuraman
Zulhaimi — As a Liverpool fan, I always thought Klopp’s high-intensity, heavy-metal football was the perfect strategy. That’s until I saw Slot’s more deliberate style. Can you dissect the difference between Klopp’s and Slot’s philosophies?
Thank you for this, Zulhaimi!
There are some similarities within their approaches, but primary differences arise in pressing intensity and flexibility. In Klopp’s last five seasons, Liverpool’s average passes per defensive action (PPDA) was 10.2, indicating that they pressed high and at pace to force errors in the opposition’s defensive third. This season, Liverpool’s PPDA has dropped slightly to 10.8, suggesting that, while they have adapted some of Klopp’s principles, Slot’s team are willing to not press too high up top on occasion with a focus on winning the ball in deeper positions but springing forward quickly, as they did for Darwin Nunez’s goal against Villa over the weekend.
Winning duels in midfield and defence even if it means allowing space in earlier phases is key to Slot’s approach, just like closing down players right from the goalkeeper was the heartbeat of Klopp’s approach. This allows Liverpool to exercise more control and as the graph below shows, they have consistently been defensively sound and created opportunities while becoming a less all-action side.
Slot is also comfortable switching to a more defensive setup if the game demands it. This could be by using a mid-block, simply retreating a few steps to cede possession for some time or any other way, and speaks to Slot’s flexibility.
Klopp’s method was more direct and he stuck to his guns to great effect, but when the fixtures and injuries began piling up as they did in his latter seasons, Liverpool seemed to come unstuck because of their intensity — but that is projected to be less of an issue under Slot, though it is still early days with tougher tests to come.
Anantaajith Raghuraman
Adrian — In terms of player development, what are the telltale attributes that a player who might develop into one of the world’s elite in their position would have early on? For example, was there anything we could tell from watching Rodri at Atletico Madrid that could point us towards the outcome of him winning the Ballon d’Or?
Hi Adrian, thank you for this question — it’s certainly a very interesting one.
I did some research on this recently. Existing research, while old, suggests talent identification does not have a fixed model because it is still so subjective despite technological advancements. There are a range of factors as you mention in your longer question — psychological, physiological, sociological and technical, among others — that vary from player to player.
Academic research from 2022 suggested that scouts focused more on technical attributes and often, the assumption was that the best young players also have the highest potential to become stars in the future — there are enough examples we have seen over the years that prove this is not necessarily true.
(Lars Baron/Getty Images)
The factors you mention are key, but it is difficult to narrow player identification down to a straightforward process or set of attributes.
There is also the element of luck — who knows what would have happened if Atletico Madrid had not brought Rodri to their academy from Rayo Majadahonda, for example, where he began his youth career? It is difficult to see either club or Manchester City predicting a Ballon d’Or in his future, even though his passing and technical ability in a team with a reputation for victories earned via grit and perseverance shone through at Atletico.
I believe new technology and video scouting software makes it easier to evaluate every movement of a player with more than reasonable precision, but the sheer volume of factors on and off the pitch involved makes performance and career trajectories very difficult to predict.
Anantaajith Raghuraman
(Top photos: Getty Images)
