Is it naive for a newly promoted team to play possession football in the Premier League? | Southampton

lLove or loathe their style of football, Southampton are one of the most interesting promoted teams we've seen in recent years. first division. You may not like their gameplay, some may even consider it boring, but they have a bold approach and so far, they're sticking with it.

Are they naive? Maybe. Would any of your own fans want to change it up a bit? Very possibly. But football has no single solution and there is no plan, system or philosophy that is completely foolproof; It would be pretty boring if such a thing existed.

After achieving promotion to the Premier League with last season's Championship final playoff victory over LeedsSouthampton manager Russell Martin addressed how there was already talk that the Saints needed to change their possession-based approach to survive in the top flight.

“For me, if you win this way, it's the best way,” he says. “There's no right or wrong way, but it's what I believe in, it's what we believe in. And we finally gained something by doing it… so I guess it will be some form of validation for some people. I love what we do and I'm not going to change and I'm sure it will start (it probably already has) (people say) we won't play this way in the Premier League and all that, the scrutiny and the intensity that will come with that. It is up to us to prove ourselves right and make sure we accept it without losing who we are.”

Whatever happens during the rest of the Premier League season, Martin will always have 2023-24 left. It must be recognized that he arrived at the club in June 2023 with the plan of playing a certain type of football and guiding Southampton to promotion: he achieved both.

On top of that, the style of play that managed to impress the Saints was the most extreme possession-based system ever seen in the Championship.

His 666.7 passes per game, 597.8 successful passes per game, 89.7% passing accuracy, 66.1% possession, 344.5 passes in the opponent's half per game and 85.5% accuracy of pass in the opposite field were all the highest recorded in the Championship (excluding playoffs) by any team in a single season (since 2013-14).

Of course, it could be argued that they fell short of their primary goal of automatic promotion, with a run of three defeats in their final four regular season games allowing Ipswich (who had been promoted from League One just a year earlier) to overtake them. . But in the end they did the job.

Martin has also mostly stuck to his principles during the opening weeks of the Premier League season. While their average possession figure has dropped a bit after having just 41% of the ball against Arsenal, it's still fair to say that overall they've had enough, with their 57.4% over the first seven matchdays bettered by just four clubs.

They may no longer be the best when it comes to ball retention after taking the step forward, but their numbers are no slouch. Only Manchester City and Liverpool have more than 552.9 passes and 486.9 successful passes per game, rank fifth in average possession (57.4%), and only Tottenham have had a higher proportion of their goal kicks completed in their own penalty area, which highlights how determined they are to play from the back.

Going back to 2003-04, only two newly promoted teams have had a higher proportion of possession over a full season in the Premier League: Leeds (57.8%) in 2020-21 and Swansea (58%) in 2011-12. That same Swansea team is also the only promoted team during the same period to average more passes per game (557.5) in a single season than Southampton at the moment, although Saints' average successful passes per game is higher than that of the Swans (474.7).

The Saints are also on track to set a new record for successful passes (88.1%) by a promoted team since 2003-04; However, it is obviously worth recognizing that just because one team dominates the ball does not automatically mean that it is in any way better than another.

It's all very well having a lot of ball, but if you can't put it in the net or if you keep conceding, is it really the best way to approach a bid for Premier League survival?

YesOuthampton have one point from seven league games this season, and their fixtures have not been among the toughest. The only point they have achieved was against the also promoted Ipswich, who tied in the 94th minute at St Mary's last month. They lost 3-1 to Bournemouth, Brentford and Arsenal, 3-0 to a poor Manchester United and 1-0 to Nottingham Forest and 10-man Newcastle.

Their next matches after the international break could be crucial. While few expect them to make something like a trip to Manchester City on October 26, before that they host Leicester, then Everton visit St Mary's in early November before the Saints visit Wolves, the only team currently by below them in the table, a week. later. If they do not show signs of life in that race before the next international window, it will be difficult to see them charting a way out.

There is no magic recipe for retaining Premier League status, although the six promoted teams with the highest average possession in their first season in the Premier League (since 2003-04) have remained in the position. We probably shouldn't make too much of that, given that the clubs ranked 7th to 12th in that regard were all relegated and it's highly unlikely that having 50% of the ball instead of 49.8% over a season was actually the difference between descent and descent. and survival, but it is an omen Southampton can cling to.

Southampton are not the first team to achieve promotion from the Championship by playing with a strong possession-focused philosophy and playing from the back. Not many have managed to stay in the top flight for long without softening that approach a bit; look at Marcelo Bielsa's Leeds, for example; electric in their first season back before spending two seasons fighting relegation and finally returning to the Championship in 2023.

The discourse on social media about Southampton's style has focused attention on Brighton, who, as most would agree, are a completely different beast to the Seagulls team that won promotion in 2017. They did not finish above the position 15 nor accumulated more than 41 points in their first game. four seasons in the Premier League.

Under Chris Hughton, they struggled to secure their status for two seasons before beginning the transition to a more clearly progressive way of playing, with the appointment of Graham Potter ahead of the 2019-20 campaign. But that too was a process, which ultimately led to the arrival of Roberto De Zerbi and a sixth-place finish in 2022-23, the highest place in the English pyramid in which they have finished a season.

In retrospect, Brighton's gradual process has seen them establish a platform to build on and they have become one of the league's best entertainers; Some have suggested that Southampton are trying to move forward without laying a solid enough foundation.

The counterargument is that Southampton actually have a history of playing similarly in the top flight. It may not always be so extreme, but Mauricio Pochettino, Ronald Koeman, Mauricio Pellegrino, Ralph Hasenhüttl and Nathan Jones all, with varying degrees of success, valued having possession and wanted the Saints to play from the back. However, there is unmistakably a trend whereby promoted teams often aim higher in terms of how they play, regardless of whether history suggests it is sustainable or not. But why?

METROartin has already answered questions about how to change course tactically, saying at the beginning of the season they are “working toward something, not away from something; working to be better all the time, improving, growing, learning, rather than just: 'We have to stay on top, that's all.'”

To be fair, staying true to what got you to this point seems understandable in your personal context. Framed on the wall of his office at Southampton's training ground is a quote from Pep Guardiola following their 2011 Champions League victory.

When we win, the game model seems good and is not questioned. But keep in mind that we won't always win. Then doubts will come. That is the moment when we will have to trust the model more than ever because the temptation to move away from it will be very strong.

In that sense, some will feel that it wouldn't be a great idea if the Saints suddenly abandoned their philosophy once life became a little more difficult, but there is an argument that simpler, more defensive styles of play are more limiting in the long run. term, with Martin himself. insisting that you won't get away with “winning ugly” for long.

It is also not entirely unreasonable to have a more cynical point of view regarding the managers themselves; More and more top clubs want coaches who play expansive, possession-based football. Southampton may go down, sure, but a bigger club can still take a chance on Martin. Vincent Kompany ended up at Bayern Munich after being relegated with Burnley.

Fortune favors the brave and Martin cannot be accused of not believing in his ideals. Whether they are strong enough to keep the Saints standing, only time will tell.