Man City are in real danger of crashing out, Arsenal and Aston Villa still have work to do… while Liverpool are through to the last-16 already – Champions League permutations heading into the final two matches

We have reached the business end of the league phase of the Champions League, with the final two rounds of gripping action set to take place in January. 

The overall picture looks pretty positive for Premier League clubs right now, with Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa all sitting pretty in the top five and on course for automatic qualification to the last-16.

But Manchester City have major problems to solve after slipping to a 2-0 defeat at Juventus on Wednesday night.

They have won just one of their last 10 matches in all competitions, and Pep Guardiola‘s men are at risk of being dumped out of the Champions League without even getting the chance to redeem themselves in the play-offs.

It is set up to be a fascinating finale to the league phase, with teams desperately trying to avoid dropping into the bottom 12 places.

Mail Sport has taken a look at all the permutations you need to know ahead of next month’s final fixtures.

Arne Slot’s Liverpool have already qualified for the last-16 of the Champions League

Man City lost at Juventus on Wednesday and are at risk of crashing out before the knockout stages

Liverpool

Let’s start with the one English club that is already through to the knockout rounds. 

Arne Slot‘s Reds have been perfect in Europe, winning all six of their matches to top the table.

At least, that’s how most observers would view Liverpool’s run, but Slot did admit he was not pleased at all with his team’s performance in their 1-0 win over Girona on Tuesday.

Still, there is plenty of time to fix any issues from that match, and Slot will be able to rotate his squad for their last two matches against Lille and PSV Eindhoven.

It is the ideal scenario for Slot, whose Liverpool side look like the team to beat at the moment. 

Mo Salah scored the only goal of the game as Liverpool beat Girona on Tuesday to book their place in the last-16

Arsenal

Mikel Arteta’s men still have some work to do, but are well placed to join Liverpool in the last-16.

Wednesday night’s 3-0 win over Monaco lifted Arsenal into third in the table with 13 points from their six matches to date.

According to Football Meets Data, Arsenal now have an 88 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight, while they are guaranteed to make the top 24 and get themselves a play-off.

Arsenal host Dinamo Zagreb before finishing off their league phase campaign away at Girona. 

They may require just one more win to get into the top eight and avoid playing two extra play-off matches. 

Arsenal are closing in on a top-eight finish but still have a little bit of work to do

Aston Villa

Villa are level on points with Arsenal after beating RB Leipzig 3-2 on Tuesday, but their place in the top eight is far from guaranteed.

They still have to travel to Monaco before hosting Celtic, and Football Meets Data gives them a 54 per cent chance of sealing an automatic qualification spot.

Like Arsenal, they are certain of making the top 24, so will at least get a play-off to book their place in the knockout rounds.

Unai Emery’s team had made the perfect start to their European campaign by winning their opening three games, but they experienced a wobble after they failed to beat Club Brugge or Juventus.

The Spanish manager will hope that edging a five-goal thriller against Leipzig will spark his team into life as they bid to stay in the top eight. 

Unai Emery watched his side beat RB Leipzig on Tuesday, but Villa’s chances of making the top eight hang in the balance

Manchester City

City are in a precarious position that no one could have predicted at the start of the season.

They looked toothless in attack against Juventus, and now have a mountain to climb to continue their European adventure.

City are currently 22nd in the table, and just a point above the cut-off point for sides crashing out without getting a play-off.

They face the team immediately below the cut-off point, PSG, next in what promises to be a mouthwatering encounter.

Guardiola’s side then play Club Brugge in their final game. Football Meets Data have given City just a 0.02 per cent chance of making the top eight, but feel they have an 89 per cent chance of getting into the top 24, with one win from their last two games likely to be enough to earn them a play-off. 

As things stand, City are on course to play Italian giants AC Milan in the play-offs, according to Football Rankings. 

Pep Guardiola’s Man City have big problems and might not even make the play-offs

Could any other big clubs miss out?

Defending champions Real Madrid are just one point and two places better off than City, despite beating Atalanta on Tuesday. They have been given just a one per cent chance of making the top eight, with a play-off (99 per cent) looking more likely to be their route to the last-16.

Meanwhile, PSG are currently just outside the top 24, and losing to City next time out would leave them on the brink of elimination.

Football Meets Data has ruled them out of top-eight contention, but they have been given a 62 per cent chance of reaching the play-offs.

Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid and Juventus are all hovering just outside the top eight, with time running out for them to nail down an automatic qualification spot. 

Jude Bellingham’s Real Madrid look like they will probably need the play-offs to make the last-16

PSG won earlier this week but are still outside the top 24 at the moment

Football Meets Data has crunched the numbers to determine each club’s chances of making the last-16

Prize money

There are three categories for the Champions League prize money – equal shares, value pillar and performance-based.

Let’s begin with equal shares as this is the starting fee that each club receives. According to UEFA: ‘Each of the 36 clubs that qualify for the league phase can expect to receive a league phase allocation of €18.62m (£15.3m), split into a down-payment of €17.87m (£14.7m) and a balance of €750,000 (£618,000).’

Then you have value pillar which accounts for €853m (£703m). This is related to individual club’s coefficients and broadcast market payouts and is divided into two parts – the European and non-European part.

For the European part, clubs are ranked based on their performances in competitions over the past five seasons, while the participating countries are also ranked based on their domestic broadcasters’ contribution to the overall media revenue.

The winners of the Champions League will receive over £21m in performance-based prize money

A total of 666 shares are then distributed accordingly between the 36 competing teams. The non-European part uses the same system, but looks at each team’s UEFA co-efficient over a 10-year period instead.

Finally, there is performance-based prize money. Reaching the last-16 earns a club €11m (£9.27m), while making the knockout play-off brings in €1m (£842,669).

Each league phase win is rewarded with €2.1m (£1.77m), and a league phase draw gets a team €700,000 (£589,868).

The prize money continues to bump up as the competition progresses with quarter-finalists receiving €12.5m (£10.53m), semi-finalists being paid €15m (£12.64m) and then €18.5m (£15.59m) for the runner-up. The Champions League winners will take home €25m (£21.07m).