Man City once stumbled in the race for the biggest title of all. This time it looks different | city ​​of manchester

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tThere are still only two points in it: city ​​of manchester 73, Arsenal 71, Liverpool 71. It's not over yet. If all three keep pace over the next five games, it will still be the first season since 1971-72 in which three different teams enter their final game of the season with a chance to win the title. The hope for anyone looking for a dramatic showdown is that this weekend was just the beginning of a final month of twists and turns. But the feeling is that the race has taken a decisive turn towards City and a fourth consecutive title for Pep Guardiola's team.

That is not all City beat Luton 5-1. That was to be expected; They beat them 6-2 in the FA Cup in February. Nor was it just the fact that Liverpool lost at home to Crystal Palacethe opponent that Jürgen Klopp had beaten more than any other, or that Arsenal lost at home to Aston Villa, coached by his former coach Unai Emery, every detail twists the knife a little more. It was the way they lost, after the way Arsenal had done it. played in the draw against Bayern Munich in the Champions League and the way Liverpool had played in lose to Atalanta in the Europa League.

Arsenal were facing Bayern when an inexplicable charge by David Raya from his goal put pressure on Gabriel and caused the tie. Although in the end they fought to tie the game, the feeling on Sunday was that of a team that had not yet regained its balance; Arsenal remain an eager team; Dominant when things are going well, but prone to stumble when they are not. Liverpool's problems are at both ends: 21 times this season they have conceded the first goal in a league match, which will always cause problems if the goals for some reason – lack of precision, loss of confidence, misfortune – run out. that have.

This is what the teams used to look like on set: tense, exhausted, tired, muscles tense as the finish line comes into view. City had that when they won the league in 2011-12, their first championship in 44 years, drawing against Stoke and Sunderland and losing in Arsenal seemingly giving away the league with five games remaining before finally securing it with two injury-time goals against QPR. It's what he used to make matchups so unpredictable: the most mundane game against the most common opponent could emerge as an insurmountable barrier when the potential consequences were so great.

It is part of the excellence of the city (the Despite 115 unresolved charges) that winning has become such a habit that they do not seem to struggle with the same anxieties: while others struggle with doubt and fatigue, they simply keep smashing your opponents aside. But as a club, they have known the anguish of collapse.

Derby County players celebrate after finding out they have won the league title while on holiday in Mallorca. Photograph: Mirrorpix/Getty Images

There will probably never be a repeat of 1971-72, the greatest of all title races, when four different teams went into their last game with a chance to win the title, even though those games were spread over 16 days. City, who were five points clear in March (in the days of two points), have won just three of their last eight games, something that was attributed to the signing of Rodney Marsh, whose style many found disruptive. On 22 April, they beat title rivals Derby, managed by Brian Clough, in their final match. Then he won the derby Liverpool in their last game on May 1, but either Liverpool or Leeds would have the chance to take the league in their final games, played on May 8, two days after Leeds beat Arsenal in the FA Cup final. However, Leeds lost to Wolves, while Liverpool drew against Arsenal, meaning Derby took the title by one point. They learned of their win while sitting in a hotel lobby on a playoff trip to Mallorca while their assistant coach, Peter Taylor, listened to updates on the front desk phone.

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Modern City, however, can look at the six remaining games with a degree of confidence: away to Brighton and Nottingham Forest; home of the wolves; far away, in Fulham and Tottenham; home of West Ham. Any of the away games have the potential to be tough, but that's not as daunting a matchup as either of their rivals faced. Arsenal still have to go to Wolves, Tottenham and Manchester United, and have Chelsea, Bournemouth and Everton at home; Liverpool have away games at Fulham, Everton, West Ham and Villa and host Tottenham and Wolves. The biggest complication could be that City are still in the FA Cup final and are more likely than any of the rivals progress in Europe, but it may be that when they face what appears to be the biggest test of their remaining tests, against Spurs in the final week of the season, the water will be clear and the pressure will not be so great.

City have not been as overwhelmingly brilliant this season as they were in the second half of last season and yet they are still 17 games unbeaten in the league and in recent weeks some of their old rhythm has returned. They seem ready to accelerate off the field. The only hope for those who crave drama is that if they were writing the script to be as intriguing as possible, that's exactly how they would write it.

This is an excerpt from Soccer with Jonathan Wilson, Guardian US' weekly look at the game in Europe and beyond. Subscribe for free here. Do you have any questions for Jonathan? Email footballwithjw@theguardian.comand will answer the best in a future edition.



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