Run-ins RANKED: Opta’s Supercomputer calculates which Premier League teams face toughest and easiest home stretch… and it’s bad news for ONE title-chaser but good for two under-performers
With most teams only having 10 games left in the 2023-24 Premier League season, every single side still has something to fight for, with the battles at the top and bottom of the table balancing delicately on a knife-edge.
Arsenal currently lead the way at the top of the Premier League table, but only by virtue of a superior goal difference to Liverpool, and Pep Guardiola‘s Manchester City are only one point back from both.
Similarly, Luton’s late equaliser at home to Nottingham Forest on Saturday means they are within three points of both the Tricky Trees and Everton in the battle to beat the drop at the foot of the standings.
And as if that wasn’t enough, Tottenham and Aston Villa are separated by only two points in the battle for fourth place, while the next six teams are split by 10 points as they race to qualify for either the Europa League or Conference League.
There is still so much to play for across the board, so the final 10 games will have plenty riding on them, but who faces the toughest fight at the tail end of the campaign? Here Mail Sport presents the findings from Opta’s supercomputer.
Arsenal are currently in top spot by virtue of their superior goal difference over Liverpool
Manchester City are looking to make history with a fourth successive Premier League crown
Manchester United are in the battle for fourth but are losing ground fast to Tottenham and Aston Villa
The supercomputer has attributed every team a rating between 0-100 to then assign a difficulty value to each side in a way to quantify how hard an opponent they might be, e.g. Manchester City will be much closer to 100 than Burnley as they are – probably – the best team in the world.
The average difficulty rating from every team in a club’s final run of fixtures is then taken, with the numbers then ranked to show who faces the trickiest spell of games on paper.
In terms of the title race, it would appear that Arsenal are looking at the steeper challenge in comparison to fellow suitors for the crown City and Liverpool.
The Gunners have clashes with Chelsea (H), Man City (A), Aston Villa (H), Tottenham (A) and Man United (A) still to come before ending the season at home to a potentially relegation-threatened Everton to close off the campaign. Those games earn them an average difficulty rating of 88.5 of a potential 100 – the fifth-highest overall.
Pep Guardiola’s side meanwhile are in 12th, with an average difficulty of 87.3 thanks to games against Arsenal (H), Villa (H) and Spurs (A), with Liverpool down in 14th (86.6) and will take on United (A), Spurs (H) and Villa (A) before the end of the season.
While any game in England’s top-flight can see upsets thrown up and surprise results, it would on paper appear that Liverpool are in the best position heading into the final straights.
Just behind those three is an equally fierce fight for the top four, and it looks as though Aston Villa would do very well to hold onto their points advantage come the end of the campaign.
Unai Emery’s side have the second-hardest overall run-in according to the numbers, with trips to City and Arsenal and home clashes with Chelsea and Liverpool as well as a visit to the Amex to take on Brighton.
Arteta’s team are looking at a difficult final 10 games if they are to hold onto top position
Liverpool have the easiest run-in of the three title-chasers according to Opta’s supercomputer
Manchester City have a monumental clash with Arsenal at home to come in two weeks’ time
Tottenham do still have trips to Newcastle and Liverpool but will have home advantage in the north London derby against Arsenal and City, while United’s difficulty rating is the lowest of the three looking to make the top four.
Chelsea and Tottenham had their meeting postponed late last month month due to the Carabao Cup final – however Opta have not included this game in the calculations, although it is another opportunity for both sides to pick up points.
The Blues actually come off quite well from the rankings, as well as the Magpies, with both under-performers for 2023-24 looking at more straight-forward conclusions to trying campaigns.
Chelsea are ranked just 18th, their sternest tests Arsenal (A), United (H) and trips to Brighton and Villa, while Newcastle are in 19th with clashes against Tottenham (H), Man United (A) and Brighton (H).
Chelsea have a relatively easy run-in – the 18th hardest in the league
Both teams also face matches with Sheffield United and Burnley in their final 10, the two teams stranded at the foot of the table, and therefore potentially the easier games of the whole campaign.
Away from the title race and battle for Champions League qualification, the team that actually has the hardest fixtures is Brighton, who have fallen some way short of their tremendous exploits last term.
The Seagulls’ last 10 games have been given a rating of 89.9 as they will take on City (H), Liverpool (A) and Arsenal (H) in their next four games alone, before clashes with Chelsea (H), Villa (H), Newcastle (A) and United (H) in their final five.
But not far behind them are Luton, who look to have a very unlikely fight to beat the drop on their hands with an average difficulty rating of 88.4 putting them just behind the Gunners.
Burnley and Sheffield United would both need to spring incredible surprise comebacks in order to be in with a shout of survival, despite their run-ins ranking 15th and 11th respectively, and are currently five and eight points adrift of even Luton.
The Hatters have fights with relegation rivals Forest – a game they drew on Saturday with the data published before that game – and Everton (H) and Brentford (H) as well as meetings with Spurs, City and Arsenal all on the road.
Aston Villa are currently in fourth spot but have the toughest run-in of each of the three sides still in contention for their place
Burnley secured a win over Brentford but will face a very stern test if they are to stay up
Rob Edwards’ Luton side have the sixth-hardest run-in having already drawn one of their easiest fixtures (1-1 vs Forest on Saturday)
Forest and Everton both have much easier run-ins (17th and 16th respectively), while Brentford have the easiest of all (20th) with a rating of just 85.2 despite dates with United (H), Brighton (H), Villa (A) and Newcastle (H).
Crystal Palace are currently seven clear of Luton, but do have the toughest run-in of any side in the bottom half of the league, and with trips to Newcastle, Man City, Aston Villa and Man United – on top of the visit of Liverpool – could see them drawn ever closer to that dog-fight below them.
As such, with a fiendish run-in themselves and their rivals getting off comparatively easily, things are beginning to look even tighter for the Hatters.
There is the small matter of a potential points deduction hanging over Forest’s head which would, of course, play into Luton’s hands, but there is no certainty that that would even come into play, or even be implemented before the end of the season.
