The race for the Premier League title depends on the collision with Etihad and the strength is in Arsenal | first division

TOAfter 10 games of the Premier League season, Tottenham remained top of the table with Arsenal and Manchester City two points behind and Liverpool one point clear. But for the VAR error that cost Luis Díaz a goal at the Spursthe top three would probably have been the same as now, with 10 games left.

Which tells us exactly what? That the top three are pretty evenly matched, that they have been consistent throughout the season and perhaps that, although the feel of this season has been one of constant bubbling intrigue, modern league football doesn't really allow for major swings in fortune.

If this is going to become an all-time classic, another 1971-72 when Derby took the title because Leeds and Liverpool They couldn't win their last games, there needs to be twists and turns. Ideally, all three teams would drop points in three or four of their last 10 games: in 2018-19, when City finished a point above Liverpool, there was a strange lack of drama in the final two months, as both teams won their last nine games. .

That's one of the problems with the financial stratification of the modern Premier League: when title-winning teams need 85 points or more to be champions (and often more than 90), there is less room for setbacks and comebacks than in the days when that the high 70s might be enough.

All three parties will regret it. The city will wonder how lost in wolveshow they lost four points to Chelsea and how they conceded two late goals to draw at home against the Crystal Palace. Liverpool will watch the draws in Luton and at home against Manchester United (they took 34 shots and failed to score in the last game), where points dropped unnecessarily. Arsenal had that run at Christmas when they lost to Fulham and western ham.

But interruptions are good; victories must be hard-won; Relentless victories are not good for anyone.

The last time there was a three-way title race as close as this at this stage of the season was in 2010, when, on February 27, Chelsea lost 4-2 at home to city ​​of manchester. With 10 games left, they led Manchester United by one point and Arsenal two points further back. Arsenal fell to a draw at Birmingham and defeats at Tottenham and Wigan, while Chelsea won eight of their last nine games (including, crucially, 2-1 at Old Trafford) to clinch the title.

Chelsea started the final day a point clear of United, although given that they were playing at home against Wigan and United against Stoke, it always seemed that the title had been decided on the penultimate weekend, when Chelsea won 2-0 to Liverpool. Indeed, although United beat Stoke 4-0, Chelsea beat Wigan 8-0.

There is a danger of a similar backfire this season, with Arsenal, Liverpool and City at home on the final day against teams who may have nothing to play for: Everton, Wolves and West Ham respectively. That's why next Sunday's game between City and Arsenal at the Etihad, even with about a quarter of the season remaining, looms so high.

Although the three teams still have Tottenham and Aston Villa to play, this is the last of the six meetings of the season between the three challengers. City will be wary of a trip to Spurs but, apart from that, this is the only major hurdle left for them. If they overcome it with the deficit still at one point, they will be big favorites. That's why the feeling at Anfield a fortnight ago was that Liverpool really needed a win to open some clean waters.

Last year, there was a feeling that, with mental calendars muddled by the mid-season World Cup, the matchup began too soon, each match filled with needs. Those Arsenal victories over Aston Villa and Bournemouth were treated as if they were down the stretch with a third of the season still to play.

As it turned out, by the time we got to the supposed decider between City and Arsenal at the Etihad at the end of April, a run of three consecutive draws had already eliminated Arsenal from the race.

This season, the game comes with the title race still very much alive. The only “big six” City have beaten are United; if you change that to “top six” you will simply replace two draws against Chelsea with a remarkably complete result. 1-0 defeat against Aston Villa. City are unbeaten on 22 occasions in all competitions (19 of them won), but a feeling of vulnerability persists and was accentuated in the second half at Anfield. Meanwhile, Arsenal have beaten City twice this season (on penalties in August community shield and 1-0 in league in October.

Arsenal, who were knocked out of the FA Cup in January, will go into the match without playing for 19 days. In a sense, after eight consecutive league wins and their qualification to the last 16 of the Champions League, the break came at the wrong time for them and, as demonstrated by their frenetic second half against Brentford, in which they had have to fight to win. a game they seemed to have under control, they are still a very emotional team, for better and worse; Maintaining morale and self-confidence is vital.

But it was his latest break (albeit unaffected by international duty) that halted the Christmas slump and began his current surge in form. If there has been time to perfect even a new set-piece routine, that could be decisive.

With games at Brighton, Wolves, Tottenham and United coming up, Arsenal probably have the toughest matchup of the three contenders. Even after their form during February, would you trust them not to fall into the kind of slump that cost them against Fulham and West Ham?

But they still have an opportunity, one that Liverpool failed to take advantage of, to inflict damage directly on an opponent. If they win on Sunday, on a field they haven't won in nine years, the wave of euphoria could be enough to carry them home.