W.We are in the final stretch. The commercial end of the season. The meeting. We're as close as we can get to each team having 10 games left (damn you, rearranged game between Chelsea and Tottenham), so this is a good time to compare the relative difficulty of each team's matchup.
This is where Opta Power Rating Be useful. The ranking system assigns a score on a scale between zero (worst team in the world) and 100 (Manchester City) to rank 13,000 teams against each other. We can use the rating of each team's opponents to assign a difficulty rating to each team's remaining matches.
We've taken the average ranking of each Premier League team's 10 remaining opponents to see who has the easiest matchup and who faces the biggest challenge in the final months of the season. A higher GPA means a more difficult shoot; a lower score indicates an easier schedule.
To make our results a little more convenient, uniform and fair for our comparison, we have ignored the aforementioned Chelsea-Tottenham match, which was postponed a few weeks ago due to Chelsea's participation in the League Cup final, and which has not yet been given a new date. date. So, for the purposes of this exercise, think of that match as a free throw for both teams; the chance to earn one or three bonus points on top of whatever they get in their other 10 games, but it's not a guarantee of anything else.
And yes, before you shout at us, we are aware that the second leg was not just a “free hit”: Chelsea's bizarre 4-1 win in which Spurs had two players sent off and lost two more due to serious injuries that caused one of their worst runs of form in recent history. But it's prettier this way.
The race for the title
Arsenal face a challenge if they are to maintain their always very narrow lead at the top of the Premier League table. With 10 games remaining, they lead the standings on goal difference, having won eight games in a row with a surprising aggregate score of 33-4 to surpass Liverpool and Manchester City.
However, they will need to maintain their recent form and remain at their best to stay on top, and our modeling suggests they have the toughest matchup of the three title contenders. Mikel Arteta's side still face difficult trips to Manchester City, Tottenham and Manchester United, as well as potential banana skins at home against Chelsea and Aston Villa and away against Brighton and Wolves.
Arsenal face the fifth most difficult matchup of the 20 Premier League teams. Given the pace at which the top three are picking up points, Arsenal will need 10 solid performances to keep their title rivals at bay.
While neither City nor Liverpool have a particularly easy game, both have more favorable schedules. City's is a little more difficult than Liverpool's, largely due to their home game against Arsenal at the end of the month, as well as a trip to Tottenham.
Liverpool have to turn to rivals Everton and Manchester United, who will be desperate to prevent them from winning the title, but otherwise their biggest challenges are a home game against Tottenham and a trip to Villa Park on the penultimate day of the season.
The Opta supercomputer continues to bet on City win the league, but the relative difficulty of the three teams' remaining games helps put the title race into perspective.
The race between the top four
We're still waiting to see if the Premier League will secure a fifth place finish in next season's Champions League. If only four clubs make it, there will almost certainly be a fight between Aston Villa, Tottenham and Manchester United for that remaining place.
Villa are fourth, two points clear of Spurs (who have a game in hand), but they have the second toughest matchup of the 20 Premier League teams, so there is plenty of opportunity for them to make a mistake. They face trips to City, Arsenal, West Ham and Brighton, as well as home games against Liverpool, Chelsea and Wolves. Villa have no games left against a team currently in the bottom five, and six of their remaining games against top-half teams.
Their form against teams in the top half of the table is also particularly poor, having lost their last four games in a row since home wins over Arsenal and City in December. Their 4-0 defeat at home to top-four rivals Tottenham last week does not bode well for what is to come.
The Spurs have a slightly easier matchup, although theirs is still the eighth toughest in the league. A brutal run towards the end of the season (when they play Newcastle, City, Arsenal and Liverpool) could make or break their chances of a top-four finish.
Manchester United have by far the easiest task among the teams chasing the Champions League, with Liverpool and Arsenal – both at home – the only teams in the current top seven remaining. The problem for United is that they have eight points to catch Villa in fourth place, but at least the schedule is good.
The battle for relegation
Realistically, Sheffield United and Burnley are down. Both are 10 points away from safety with 10 games left; Not even a simple party list will save them now. Burnley have the sixth easiest matchup and don't have to play any of the top three, but it's downright impossible to see them amassing the 20 points they'll need. The task for Sheffield United is even greater, as they have a more complicated schedule.
So that leaves one relegation spot remaining and four (or possibly five) teams fighting for survival. Luton, Nottingham Forest, Everton and Brentford are all in the relegation battle. Crystal Palace, currently eight points clear of the relegation zone, are surely safe, even if they have the toughest matchup of any team in the bottom half of the table.
It looks like Luton could be in trouble next their dramatic 4-3 defeat at Bournemouth On Wednesday. When they were leading 3-0 at half-time, they could have hoped for a great escape, but they became the third team in history to lose a Premier League match after leading by three goals at half-time, and are now looking towards the very real possibility of returning directly to the second level.
With visits to Tottenham, Arsenal and City, Rob Edwards' team faces the sixth most difficult matchup in the entire Premier League. Edwards is likely to focus his attention on more crucial winnable home games against Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, Brentford and Everton.
Things look even bleaker for Luton. Brentford, Forest and Everton face the easiest matchups, the fourth and fifth easiest respectively according to our model. They all have to play against the three promoted teams, so there will be a lot of pressure in those games against Luton. Luton's hopes may ultimately depend on whether Forest end up, like Everton, receiving a points deduction.
