Erling Haaland (Manchester City), 21 goals
Haaland He won the Premier League golden boot last season., scoring 36 goals in his first campaign in England. He is unlikely to challenge his record of scoring the most goals in a only Premier League campaignbut 21 makes him the favorite this season and would be considered a clear success for any other striker in the league.
City have four games left to play (against Wolves, Fulham, Tottenham and West Ham), so they could still score a few more goals after overcoming the muscle problem that worried them before returning to City (and scoring), against Nottingham Forest at the weekend.
Haaland is the second team that has made the most shots in the league this season (104), only behind Darwin Núñez (105). While his record of 0.69 goals per game (excluding penalties) has not matched his non-penalty expected goals of 0.82 per 90 minutes, he will be sure to score a few more goals in the final weeks of the season. He easily has the highest proportion of touches inside the box (28.1%) of all regular players in the league.
Say what you want about his form, but Haaland remains the man to beat.
Cole Palmer (Chelsea), 20 goals
What a season Palmer is having. Although his talent was not in doubt in city of manchester, his impact on Chelsea has made people take notice. Going into the final games of the season, he is almost keeping pace with former teammate Haaland, which is a notable achievement considering this is Palmer's first season as a regular starter at this level.
Of course, Palmer's production has been significantly boosted by sanctions. His 0.45 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes are surpassed by up to 20 players (minimum 900 minutes), which may take some of the shine off his total. Regardless, penalties are a key part of the game and when it comes to the golden boot, all goals carry equal weight. Also, his record on penalties (nine out of nine, meaning he is in line to record the best 100% penalty kill record in a single game). first division season – has helped an otherwise inconsistent Chelsea team.
Nine players in the league have taken more shots than Palmer, but only two of them can improve their shots on goal ratio (46.4%). If he maintains his record of a goal every 109 minutes, he has a good chance of at least sharing the golden boot. Chelsea still have five games left to play, giving them ample opportunities to add to his tally.
Alexander Isak (Newcastle), 19 goals
If Isak continues to develop as he has since joining Newcastle, he will become a superstar. The 24-year-old It's already quite useful and has really found his rhythm in recent months, scoring nine goals in his last eight Premier League games and launching himself into the fight for the golden boot.
He is clinical and reliable in front of goal. No one else on this list has as good a shot conversion record this season. Isak has scored 19 goals on 66 shots (i.e. a conversion rate of 28.8%; only Chris Wood (32.4% of 37 shots) and Elijah Adebayo (32.1% of 28 shots) have scored higher proportion of their shots among players with at least 25 attempts, although none have recorded as many efforts.
Isak's 19 goals have come in just 26 games, meaning he scores at a rate of 0.88 every 90 minutes, or one goal every 103 minutes. His non-penalty xG of 0.65 is second only to Haaland's (0.69) for the players on this list.
Newcastle's form this season has been erratic, but they pose a threat going forward, especially in recent weeks, scoring four or more goals in three of their last six games. They always create opportunities: Isak has been presented with 1.48 “big chances” every 90 minutes, second only to Haaland (1.91). And they have games to play against teams that give up a lot of shooting opportunities, like Burnley, Brighton and Manchester United. Isak's form has reached a new level at just the right time.
Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa), 19 goals
Will Ollie Watkins take home the golden boot and player of the season award? Phil Foden might have something to say about the latter, especially if City win the title, but Watkins is in contention for both awards. The English striker has reached a new peak with Unai Emery and has been one of the most outstanding players in the league – and the one that has improved the most.
With 31 goals involved, he is the first English player not named Harry Kane to register more than 30 in a Premier League season since Jamie Vardy helped Leicester win the title in 2015-16 (when he contributed 24 goals and six assists). Watkins is on the verge of becoming the first Villa player to score 20 goals in a Premier League season, and the first in the top flight since Peter Withe in 1981.
No player in the league can better his goal involvements, which shows how well he has combined with Leon Bailey and Moussa Diaby in Villa's devastatingly fluid attack. None of his 19 goals have been from penalties. It might be worth him having a few words in designated penalty taker Douglas Luiz's ear over the next few days.
Watkins' teammates clearly trust him, as 43.9% of his off-ball runs into the box are led by passes from colleagues, which is the fourth highest proportion of all forwards (min. 900 minutes and over 10 runs directed towards the area). His 16.04 penalty-free xG trails only Haaland (20.2) and Dominic Solanke (16.2), but Watkins has surpassed that expectation by 2.96. He has been lethal.
Dominic Solanke (Bournemouth), 18 goals
Solanke has already set a new record for most goals scored by a Bournemouth player in a top-flight season, surpassing Joshua King's total of 16. Bournemouth are having a very good season under Andoni Iraola and have even climbed to the top half of the table. table after your impressive 3-0 win over Brighton at the weekend. They have picked up 42 points in the Premier League since their 6-1 thrashing of Manchester City in early November; Only champions Arsenal, Liverpool and Villa have accumulated more points in that time.
Unfortunately for Solanke, there were no goals against Brighton, although there will be more opportunities before the end of the season. His tally of 16 goals without penalties is only surpassed by Watkins (19) and Haaland (17). He has been remarkably consistent for Bournemouth, playing 3,120 minutes in the league this season, the fifth most of all outfielders. You can't score if you don't play and Solanke plays a lot.
He has the added motivation of trying to force his way into the England squad for Euro 2024, although his lack of opportunities suggests Gareth Southgate will look elsewhere. Bournemouth will have a tough run in the coming weeks (they play Arsenal, Brentford and Chelsea), but this has been a tremendous campaign for Solanke. He has what it takes to play at the top and it is possible for him to make a big move.
Mohamed Salah (Liverpool), 17 goals
There is a perception that Salah is not having a great season, but he is still in the race for the golden boot. Salah has scored 17 goals and created more big chances than any other player in the division. If only his teammates were as efficient. Liverpool They have taken 715 shots this season, by far the most in the league and almost 100 more than second-placed Manchester City (621).
Salah has been more lethal than his teammates: the agent of chaos that is Núñez has scored 11 goals on his 105 shots, compared to Salah's 17 of 100. Salah averages 9.1 touches in the opponent's box each match, which is considerably more than any other. of his rivals on this list (Haaland is next with 6.8), and his xG of 0.75 per 90 minutes is only behind Haaland (0.98), Isak (0.8) and Callum Wilson (0.78 ). The disadvantage is that his goals per game (0.68) does not quite match his xG.
